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A SENSE OF ASIA

North of the border: Playing the China card with a limp wrist


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By Sol Sanders
SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM

Sol W. Sanders

October 27, 2005

It’s tough being a Canadian. You have to pin on a Maple Leaf traveling abroad to tell people you are not a dreaded American. Your highly touted health system, supposedly distinguishing you from Americans, depends on U.S. border city hospitals to keep your waits tolerable. Your doctors desert to the enemy in droves. In fact, the brain drain means you educate immigrant hordes who can’t wait to make another leap across the border.

Luckily, although you are not pulling your weight any more in North American defense, the Americans have no choice but to build an anti-missile defense including you. You tried to build a Little Canada economy, then tried to affiliate with the Europeans, but in the end you bit the bullet, signed a free trade pact with the Americans since your economy was drifting more and more into total dependence on your southern neighbor. You hate it but with the largest trading relationship in the world, you are now tied to the U.S. – most of the time for better, but you won’t escape its ups and downs.

At the moment, you have a government squeaking through with a tiny majority. And it depends on the goodwill of a French Canadian federal delegation, pledged to tearing apart the confederation. In fact, separatist sentiment appears rising again in French-speaking Quebec even though its main separatist party may soon be led by a young man trying desperately to shake off his reputation as a young junkie Quean.

Prime Minister Martin, furthermore, is turning out not to be a chip off the old bloc, his father a widely respected statesman. The Man The Economist called Mr. Dithers has inherited a silly campaign finance scandal [not that much different from the kind the Canadians look down on condescendingly when they happen in the U.S.]. Although Canada’s chattering classes like to think they are a tolerant, peaceful, progressive society pushing through gay marriage, abortion on demand, etc., etc., Canada, too, has its reds and blues.

All this means while there was much smiling during Secretary Rice’s just completed visit — she had been to three dozen countries before Ottawa — it seems likely relations are not going to improve. The immediate issue is a hassle over Canadian softwood exports. Washington claims Canada subsidizes timber cutting through a complicated payment called “stumpage”. The 25-year-old argument is so much a reflection of the intimate ties lobbies exist on both sides arguing both views. The Bush Administration slapped on a tax — so far netting some $5 billion. Ottawa took it to arbitration through the North American Trade Act, got a ruling against the Americans. Washington took it to the World Trade Organization, got a ruling against the Canadians. Rice said we should negotiate further. Martin said time for negotiation was past.

Once upon a time gentle nostalgia hung over the relationship. But these days you would have to use a very bright lantern to find an old style British Empire Loyalist — descendants of the Tories who fled Virginia and other parts for Lower Canada [Ontario] during the American Revolution. Chances are the Sikh, Ukrainian, or Haitian on a Toronto street wouldn’t even know what you were talking about.

But anti-Americanism still sells. Martin isn’t about to abandon that tool in a forthcoming election which might be close, even with Canada’s multiparty squantum.

Okay, that’s just politics. But what is worrying is Ottawa’s flirtation with China. At the moment while Washington’s policy toward “the rising” Asian giant is in limbo, Ottawa has decided to court Beijing. Martin even hinted Canada, the U.S.’ No. 1 source of imported energy, might turn toward the Chinese as an alternate market. It’s not really much of a threat. Oil is fungible, as they say, and even state-owned operations like Venezuela’s America-hating Chavez’ sell where they can get the best deal.

His predecessor, Prime Minister Chrétien, rushed off to China as soon as he was out of office with his in-laws in the oil business. It seems only a matter of time those in-laws’ connections to French oil, the Parisbas Bank and the U.N. Oil for Food Scandal will reach into Martin’s Liberal Party. They were, at least, reinforcement for Chrétien’s in-your-face anti-U.S. Iraq position.

When Martin was visited earlier this month by China’s President Hu [Bush was busy with Katrina], he went so far as to sign a “strategic alliance”, whatever that might mean. Beijing’s favorite billioniare, Li Ka Shing, already owns a major Canadian oil company. And Ottawa is chasing after Chinese investment for huge Canadian oil sands deposits which what with present shortages and high prices looks good — but perhaps may not look so good when the Chinese bubble bursts and technological breakthroughs in other fuels make their difficult processing too expensive.

Ottawa and Washington will continue to go through a period of differences, but Siamese twins aren’t severed that easily. Martin’s China card might be from another deck. It certainly isn’t up his sleeve.

Sol W. Sanders, (solsanders@comcast.net), is an Asian specialist with more than 25 years in the region, and a former correspondent for Business Week, U.S. News & World Report and United Press International. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.

October 20, 2005

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