N. Korean trainwreck: But are Washington and Seoul still allies?
UNITED NATIONS — The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse stalk North Korea — Famine, Floods, Nuclear weapons, and Dictatorship. Nonetheless the ruler Kim Jong-il, aka “Dear Leader” apparently still feels he has the option to figuratively tell his minions to “Let ‘em eat Neutrons.” But before long, an escalating food crisis may catch up with this Marxist Hermit Kingdom.
The World Food Program (WFP) warns that North Korea faces a dire food crisis for nearly a third of the population of the communist country. Many overseas humanitarian donors have ceased contributing, forcing the Rome-based UN agency to nearly exhaust the 230,000 tons of food desperately needed to feed 6.5 million North Koreans. The WFP needs an additional 200,000 tons — and soon — before it’s forced to wind down humanitarian operations, according to its regional director Anthony Banbury.
This reduction according to the WFP, would come on top of new rations cuts affecting seventy percent of the population. Given that hunger has persisted for nearly a decade, triggered by weather as well as by rigid regime-run agricultural plans, the country could slip back into famine. In the 1990’s, between two and three million people perished from starvation and famine-related illness.
This bitter irony comes as the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea recklessly pursues its nuclear weapons programs in the face of international outrage. Multilateral diplomacy aimed at defusing the crisis — the Six Party Talks with the two Koreas, Japan, Russia, People’s China and the USA — has been stalled by Pyongyang’s refusal to reenter the dialogue. Behind the scenes diplomatic meetings at the UN and in New York hint at a resumption of the talks, but to what end?
Both President George W. Bush and his South Korean counterpart Roh Moo-Hyun will meet in Washington for what could be a crucial if not last ditch attempt to defuse the DPRK’s nuclear proliferation. The reasons for the Summit are simple; South Korea’s left-leaning government has not been on the same page with the U.S. on a number of key political and defense issues, let along diplomatic coordination over North Korean nukes.
Thus most of Washington’s future options dealing with the DPRK tilt towards escalation — either politically or ultimately militarily. Those plans are not broadly supported by the Seoul government. People’s China, a key player in the talks, favors regional dialogue but chafes at wider American diplomatic initiatives in the UN Security Council.
Just over a decade ago the Clinton Administration pursued a somewhat similar spiral of confrontation with North Korea. Given insufficient support in the Security Council for sanctions on the Pyongyang regime, the USA came perilously close to launching military attacks on North Korea.
In June 2000, a landmark meeting between South and North Korea leaders was dubbed the "Sunshine Summit" — new warmth appeared to melt the once glacial relations between both sides of the divided peninsula. While politically premised to find common ground among ethnic brethren in both sides of the divided Korean nation, the policy failed to take into account the DPRK’s dour determination to cynically exploit its capitalist cousins in South Korea.
Emotions aside, the Sunshine Policy has created a dangerous misperception concerning the regime in the North and encouraged a corresponding geo-political uncertainty in how to address the threat. Most especially, the current South Korean government has blurred its once focused geopolitical policies and has allowed wishful thinking and kumbaya type policies to dominate inter-Korean relations. Though the South Koreans wisely offer considerable humanitarian aid to their Northern brethren, there’s few reciprocal actions by the DPRK.
So, what to do?
First and foremost the USA and South Korea must speak with one voice towards the North. This does not mean threats to the DPRK but a predictable carrot and stick policy.
Second; given that the UN Security Council option would likely bring American policy down a diplomatic dead end street and dangerously expose rifts among the regional states — most especially South Korea and Mainland China, this is not a wise course. Meaningful sanctions on the DPRK are not likely to pass, and will only embolden the communist rulers.
Third; Resumption of the Six Party talks — a forum in which North Korea’s neighbors share a common goal, must resume but with a clear commitment by the USA, Japan and South Korea to a policy roadmap in which the carrots of humanitarian aid and political openings are the quid pro quo for North Korea’s nuclear transparency and disarmament.
Given the million man standoff along the DMZ and the U.S. security commitment to defend the South, time is urgent and the wider options are few and hardly pleasant.
John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense
issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.  |
