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Beijing's geopolitical agenda behind its Himalayan accord


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By John Metzler
SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM

Friday, April 15, 2005

UNITED NATIONS — The high Himalayan Mountains — the roof of the world — provided the backdrop for a political settlement, which likely resolved the long and sometimes volatile border dispute between China and India. But when PRC Premier Wen Jibao called for a new era of “peace and prosperity” between the world’s two most populous states, he was also setting an ambitious agenda. That plan could be described as the Five T’s — namely Territory, Tibet, Trade, Technology and Tokyo.

Both China and India agreed to resolve long-standing border issues along its 2,200 mile long common frontier — disputes flared into war in 1962 and has since simmered politically between the two Asian giants.

First Territory; the Sino/Indian border running from disputed Kashmir in the west to Burma in the east, will see some cartographical tweaking by both sides, which appears quite overdue and reasonable. But this raises the Second issue Tibet.

What is not said plainly is that the accord will stabilize, strengthen and secure China’s grip on Tibet. This could put pressures on Tibetans residing in India and coerce New Delhi not to give humanitarian assistance or safe haven to dissidents. The territorial accords with India thus have a double benefit for People’s China to suffocate restive Tibet.

For the high priests of geopolitics practicing in Beijing, these moves are as brilliant as they are ominous. China is securing its long unstable southern frontier with once-rival India and at the same time is reassuring that the New Delhi government will look to Beijing as a commercial partner and sometime political ally. The Indian side has reaffirmed that Tibet remains a part of Chinese territory.

The Third issue is most assuredly trade. Commerce between the two Asian giants is growing in leaps and bounds — China is already India’s largest trading partner after the USA. Two-way trade reached $13 billion in 2004 and is expected to reach $30 billion in 2010. Still by way of contrast the USA’s trade deficit with the PRC in February 2005 alone stood at $14 billion!

The Fourth; Technology. Due to their entrepreneurial nature, its educational standards and increasingly pro-business environment, modern Indian high tech centers have truly excelled as South Asia’s Silicon Valley. During a visit to Bangalore, Premier Wen said, with India's strength in software married to China's hardware skills, the two could launch the "Asian century" of information technology. Exports of Indian software in 2004-05 are estimated to be $17.5 billion as against China's $2 billion.

China’s two largest telecoms have since signed deals with India worth in excess of $280 million.

The Fifth T is Tokyo — Beijing’s political hostility towards Japan — rooted in WWII actually may have less to do with the past than with the future. Japan — along with India, Brazil and Germany, are promoting their candidacy as prospective new permanent members of the UN Security Council.

Until recently Beijing — itself a member of the exclusive club — was never keen on New Delhi and certainly not Tokyo joining the Council. Now China appears to offer India ambiguous political support for its projected Council seat, and will continue to horse trade on the specifics.

“Trilateral cooperation between India, China and Russia will help democratize international relations and safeguard world peace, security and stability,” the Chinese Premier told the Indian newspaper The Hindu, adding the three countries shared "identical and similar" views on many issues

While in India Wen Jibao launched a blunt rhetorical attack on Japan demanding that Tokyo face up to its wartime aggression before seeking a permanent Seat on the Security Council. He added “Only a country that respects history, takes responsibility for history, and wins over the truest of the people in Asia and the world at large can take greater responsibility in the international community.”

The PRC Premier reacting to latest Japanese history school textbook row regarding WWII, demanded; “The core issue in the China- Japan relationship is that Japan needs to face up to history squarely.”

Anti-Japanese protests — certainly with the tacit agreement of the communist rulers-- have rocked several Chinese cities. While the Chinese remain justifiably concerned about any whitewashing of Imperial Japan’s WWII record, the underlying issue remains that Beijing could soon be on equal status with Tokyo in the Security Council.

The PRC views Japan’s prospective gain as a clear political plus for the U.S. Thus Beijing has teamed with South Korea — equally uncomfortable with a more politically powerful Japan — to derail major UN structural reforms scheduled for the UN’s September Summit. Come September the debate may have a very different dimension.

John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.




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