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Beijing sets the rules of the game for Taiwan


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By John Metzler
SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM

Friday, March 11, 2005

UNITED NATIONS — China’s rubber stamp National Peoples Congress has passed a piece of legislation which could well bounce back not only on Beijing but hit Taiwan as well. The Anti-Secession bill issued to forestall or foreclose on formal Taiwan independence draws more than the proverbial red line, but in fact outlines the future rules of the political game between communist China and the democratic but increasingly restive Republic of China on Taiwan.

Beijing’s diktat is starkly simple — to threaten what it deems the errant and separatist province of Taiwan from formally declaring its political independence. Since the end of the Chinese civil war in 1949 both the Mainland and Taiwan have gone their politically separate ways — while still keeping committed to eventual national re-unification.

Through the People’s Republic has never renounced the use of force “to bring Taiwan province back to the Chinese motherland” this new anti-secession legislation dangerously represents a more proactive form of coercion against the prosperous and free island.

Both pundits and apologists for the People’s Republic will sonorously intone that Taiwan “belongs to China” and that no country — recall even the U.S.-- will allow states to secede. On the face of it this presents a logical approach.

But let’s bring some history into the discussion — Taiwan never broke away from the People’s Republic of China in the first place. This historically Chinese island became the refuge and redoubt for the Nationalists after the civil war and before the creation of the People’s Republic. Ironically it was Mao’s communists who broke away from the Republic of China which still legally exists on Taiwan!

For the longest time Taiwan was admired for its prosperity, its freedom and its proud Chinese culture defined in opposition to the Marxist Mainland. Indeed for all practical purposes Taiwan has been independent and doing quite nicely, thank you very much.

Taiwan’s vibrant democracy has naturally challenged the status quo and has equally questioned the once dominant Nationalist Party’s commitment to one China and re-unification. The current Democratic Progressive Party government under President Chen Shui-bian has long courted the Taiwan independence faction and has pursued a policy of Taiwanization at the expense of this Chinese identity. This fractious domestic debate among the 23 million people on Taiwan, beyond its negative political and economic impact, has given the People’s Republic of China a pretext — a carte blanche to attack.

The anti-secession legislation moreover gives Beijing the right to decide which acts or moves by Taiwan would amount to either “virtual” or formal independence. According to Chang Jung-kung of the opposition Nationalist party, “It stresses the Mainland will resort to force if it decides Taiwanese independence is going to happen, not only if it does happen.”

In other words the PRC may preempt Taiwan’s free political choice even if that choice has not already been made!

Taipei’s respected China Post newspaper stated editorially, “To be sure, theoretically, as long as Taiwan does not make provocative moves or policies, such as by declaring independence or changing its national name or pursuing de jure independence, it need not worry about the use of force by Beijing. But the enactment of the "anti-secession law," if approved in its present form will apparently give Beijing the authority to unilaterally interpret cross-strait relations…If this island is unfortunately forced to accept the law, it will surely have constraining effects on its freedoms and political well-being.”

Needless to say the United States and Japan are both deeply concerned about the military implications of this PRC legislation. It’s clear that the PRC — despite its deep economic and trade ties with Taiwan--is simply not willing to moderate its single-minded political determination. Beijing’s bellicosity could well backfire; continued economic prosperity and foreign investment, the upcoming 2008 Olympics, and the PRC’s global standing can be negatively affected by a showdown with Taiwan..

The shadow boxing between the two de facto Chinese governments in Beijing and Taipei which long characterized the political standoff for decades, has now evolved into a dangerous game where those holding the semantical trigger in Taipei can set off a series of events which can militarily threaten Taiwan’s future and destabilize all East Asia.

John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.




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