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Bird flu pandemic — The fear factor


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By John Metzler
SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM

Friday, November 4, 2005

UNITED NATIONS — The growing global fears of a possible bird flu pandemic are justified, prudence and preparation are totally warranted, but the actual threat to humans has yet to largely materialize. But being ready if and when communicable avian flu does directly endanger people, President George W. Bush was wise to ratchet up America’s preparedness given that in such a public health emergency, it’s much better safe than sorry.

The Administration’s seven billion dollar plus plan to battle the effects of a pandemic presents the first prudent move for preparedness; stockpiling anti-viral medications will assuage fears. Research and development of new vaccines will be equally vital. Focused information and set quarantine plans on the state and local level must be enhanced to counter disinformation and a wave of panic.

An epidemic represents a disease outbreak in a locality or region—a pandemic signifies that the disease has spread to larger regions or continents. The avian disease has been around for about seven years and is concentrated mostly in Asia. Yet when birds migrate to Europe and North America, the strain can spread like the wind. Infected birds with the deadly H5N1 virus have been found in Turkey and Romania prompting widespread fears for poultry stocks throughout Europe.

Curiously the SARS epidemic started in Mainland China three years ago and there’s continuing evidence that the current flu has roots in rural China too. The H5N1 bird flu virus can become far more deadly should it mutate with a human borne virus. Such a deadly combination could then ( I repeat Could) be tinkered with by terrorists or rogue regime military labs in the hope of creating a frightful weapon of mass destruction.

Though the U.S. will purchase and stockpile anti-viral medications, its interesting to note that the suppliers will be largely Swiss; American pharmaceutical firms have long left the business for a variety of reasons, the most notable being the threat of a blizzard of lawsuits that can accompany any new drug introduced to the market. Moreover new vaccines responding to a fast developing public health emergency would be developed as a unique response to a specific strain. Naturally there’s a margin of error.

Though the UN is qualified in a sense to act as a global coordinator of public health measures especially in the developing world, let’s face it it’s the USA, European Union and Japan’s whose national efforts will determine whether bird flu is defeated or not.

President Bush told a National Institute of Health audience, “In September at the United Nations, I announced a new International Partnership on Avian and Pandemic Influenza -- a global network of surveillance and preparedness that will help us to detect and respond quickly to any outbreaks of disease. The partnership requires participating countries that face an outbreak to immediately share information and provide samples to the World Health Organization. By requiring transparency, we can respond more rapidly to dangerous outbreaks.”

Bush added, “Since we announced this global initiative, the response from across the world has been very positive. Already, 88 countries and nine international organizations have joined the effort.” Transparency remains vital especially from such secrecy prone countries as the People’s Republic of China.

Given that three serious influenza epidemics wracked the U.S. in the 20th century—the worst in 1918 killing 500,000 and twenty million people worldwide-- there’s naturally cause for alarm, especially given global transportation links which can bring infected persons from all corners of the earth. Naturally tightening quarantine standards is key but given the porous state of the U.S. borders it does not bode well for a health emergency cordon sanitaire. A “mild” pandemic in the U.S. could kill 200,000 while some worst case scenarios see up to 2 million dead with 90 million people infected.

Building up anti-flu drug stockpiles makes sense—probably more so politically as it will assuage panic among the public. Still, the now famous influenza drug Tamiflu would probably not work for many future flu strains. At the same time the Bush Administration must redouble its efforts promoting scientific research and development to preempt and prepare for new avian strains through a new vaccine which would in effect block catching the flu in the first place.

The public health response must addressed on the level of National Security. In the wake of the clumsy and initially inept Federal, State and Local response to Hurricane Katrina, all levels of government are acutely aware that a pandemic—should it materialize—can have a far reaching fear factors perhaps surpassing even terrorism.

Bush stressed, “A flu pandemic would have global consequences, so no nation can afford to ignore this threat, and every nation has responsibilities to detect and stop its spread.”

John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.




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