That's the trouble with elections . . . in Asia too!

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See the Sol Sanders Archive By Sol Sanders SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM

As we calculate how many more Europeans are going to catch Òthe Spanish fluÓ ø that dreadful disease whose fevers produce a belief you can buy off buzzing terrorists by not smashing their hornetsÕ nests ø we hold our breath for Asia. There too, a series of elections are a sure sign President BushÕs insistence freedom is the only answer to the fundamentalistsÕ nostrums is spreading. But elections in crisis are a mixed blessing. And all will impact heavily on U.S. strategies for defense against another 9/11 ø whoever wins our own November contest.

As these notes are written, in a few hours Taiwan goes to the polls to decide a hard fought contest between close rivals. That match pits the cleverness of DPP Democratic PeopleÕs Party President Chen Shui Bian against a me-too, less charismatic old Kuomintang Lien Chan, and his popular shadow colleague, James Soong. It was a split between these two ø and clumsy Beijing opposition ø that catapulted ChenÕs DPP into power four years ago.

For the last four years Chen has bobbed and dodged around the DPPÕs old founding principle, Taiwan independence. That, of course, infuriates Beijing Communists who want the first democratic society in Chinese history brought back into the fold, perhaps by military action. After Bush publicly sat on Chen last year, Chen finessed an referendum on independence into a call to the Mainland to demount those 500 missiles pointed at Taipei.

But something called Taiwanese nationalism is in the air. The old KMTers have had to endorse just about everything Chen has said. And despite their mobilization of TaiwanÕs business community ø now heavily invested in and trading with the Mainland øChen might survive. If he does, it isnÕt likely to solve basic issues. Not the least is whether the national assembly is going to foot the bill for massive increases in military expenditures they had been stalling; probably the only insurance against an eventual Mainland military feint, which as in the past but with more strained resources, Washington would have to meet. In southeast Asia, Malaysia heads into a similarly hard-fought election with its own peculiarities. There new Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi is trying to unburden his ruling coalition party of Malays, Chinese, and Indians of some of the baggage of 30 years of former Prime Minister Mohammad Mahathir. Mahathir presided over MalaysiaÕs emergence from a colonial agricultural commodities economy into a burgeoning industrial society. But the xenophobic Mahathir often tried to out-Islam his Malay opposition. In the process, he contributed to a fundamentalist Moslem Malay opposition which now controls two states out of MalaysiaÕs 13. A part of their appeal has been MahathirÕs crony capitalismÕs corruption that led, in part, to the East Asian Financial Crisis of 1997. Abdullah, noted for his piety, is disbanding those cliques, privatizing bloated state companies Mahathir used to defy the IMF. With Malaysia and the Moslem populations in bordering southern Thailand infected with a multinational Southeast Asia adjunct of Al Qaeda, the contest has implications far beyond Kuala Lumpur.

Neighboring Indonesia, too, is gearing up for an election. President Megawati, daughter of the legendary demagogue, Sukarno, has walked a tightrope in combating her own Islamic terrorists. Mostly, she has looked the other way ø even after more than 200 people were blown up in the Bali bombings last year. That is, except in north Sumatra where she has taken a strong line against the Moslem independence movement in Ache. There, the Indonesian army ø not noted for its finesse ø is trying to subdue a decades-old, grass roots movement with counter-terrorism. Megawati is not yet sure who her opposition will be, but likely one of the more moderate Islamic politicians. The danger is a competition for Moslem votes will further radicalize what had historically been a tolerant Islamic majority, the worldÕs largest.

Korea doesnÕt have a religious issue. But with a literally rough and tumble national assembly impeaching its President Roh Moo-huyn, elections next month have taken on new meaning. RohÕs opponents may have overplayed their hand. Even some critics of his ham-handed administration were angered by the impeachment. That, plus the growing militancy of young Koreans, could hand RohÕs new party a big vote.

Roh, who distanced himself from the half-century American alliance, could then return -- after a constitutional court exonerates him from rather minor charges [by South Korean standards] of corruptionø to a more powerful role. Roh believes appeasement could bring North Korea around, might even persuade them to end their nuclear weapons program, another problem for U.S. policymakers trying to force Pyongyang to disarm through a collective effort.

For those holding their heads in policymaking positions at the NSC, in Foggy Bottom, and the Pentagon, it might be a moment to recall Winston ChurchillÕs admonition: the messiness of representative government is grim, but the best solution so far found.