The Taiwan timebomb

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See the Sol Sanders Archive By Sol Sanders SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM

As Tip OÕNeill said ø talking about free elections in the U.S. ø all politics are local. That is true even in an emerging democracy. And it was proved in the just completed polling in Taiwan.

For while the world media were quick to jump on what they considered the upset results [local observers had said all along it would be close], the outcome was largely over parochial issues. For unlike the March presidential race when voters expressed growing sentiment for a strengthening if amorphous ÒTaiwan identityÓ, results were obscured this time by a Byzantine electoral system. Unfortunately Taiwanese will have to wait four more years for a first-past-the-post, single seat constituency reformed system enacted last year.

President Chen Shui-bianÕs Democratic Progressive Party [DPP] got only one more seat instead of the dozen he had vigorously campaigned for. ChenÕs Kuomintang opposition øincluding support among 10 independents in a 225-man house ø will have a working majority. . [The two more ideological fringe parties in each major camp -- one pushing for formal independence immediately and the other clinging to ÒOne ChinaÓ -- lost seats.] But the constitution [designed in 1947 for a one-party state on the Mainland which Chen wants to reframe] gives the president the right to choose the prime minister.

The smaller vote is apparently attributable to a confusing campaign with Chen making contradictory statements. There was also the cloud of Bush Administration censure hanging over ChenÕs threats to revamp the constitution, perhaps change the name of the country from Republic of China to Taiwan, and his desperate efforts to hang on to TaiwanÕs painfully small hold on international recognition and its rightful place in international economic and specialized UN organizations [like the World Health Organization] given the importance of its economy.

Bugging the voters was concern about the economy and jobs as more and more manufacturing is attracted to the MainlandÕs cheap labor and growing internal markets. Like Japan and South Korea, TaiwanÕs booming trade and successful Mainland investment threatens to Òhollow outÓ its own industrial base unless it can move quickly into more sophisticated industry in the global economy. Taiwan needs continued heavy foreign investment and technology transfers building on its quite substantial R&D talents.

ThatÕs inhibited by the off and on threats of a military solution to the question of its relations with Beijing, and the MainlandÕs competition for direct foreign investment. Confidence wasnÕt helped when outgoing Secretary of State Powell, whether through misstatement or another one of the Bush AdministrationÕs zigs and sags in administering Taiwan policy, spoke of Òthe reunificationÓ of the two Chinas in a Shanghai TV interview a few weeks before the election. [The present U.S. ambassador to Taiwan is notoriously pro-Beijing.] Washington quickly backed off this formulation but of necessity left unclear whether it was a blooper. The U.S.Õ off-stated position is it takes no position on how the two sides should settle their differences except it should not be by force ø which President Bush early in the Administration flatly and publicly pledged to guarantee.

Initial Beijing election reaction seems tempered. Perhaps Beijing understands the issue of relations with the Mainland was not the all-embracing single issue of the votersÕ decision.

But the MainlandÕs continued missile deployment aimed at Taiwan looms large. And Hong KongÕs rumor-mill constantly floats theories about Beijing elements straining for a military solution before the concept of Taiwan as an independent entity is formalized.

An optimistic view, of course, says logic dictates Beijing should be willing to wait out its economic attraction on Taiwan. After all, there are more than a half million Taiwan expatriates of its 23 million managing and producing a goodly share of ChinaÕs export boom. There is probably a $100 billion Taiwan capital investment on the Mainland. China is now TaiwanÕs No. 1 trading partner. Probably even more important is the technological transfer investment brings to an economy where cheap labor will not always solve its economic development problems.

But Òthe Taiwan problemÓ represents an attractive diversion for intra-Party feuding. A crisis ø for example, a Ôhard landingÓ for the MainlandÕs overextended boomø might turn logic on its ear and present the kind of derring-do challenge a young and ambitious military hankers after.

Perhaps the best insurance against that kind of crisis would be reinforcement of TaiwanÕs flagging defenses. Washington has been pressing on ChenÕs government a $20-30 billion upscaling of its military. But a proposal for an $18-billion bond issue to finance submarines and other needed defenses has been stalled as much or more by opposition inside his own DPP, anxious to use resources for benefits all representative government electorates want. And the hassle putting together an effective government with the conflicted constitutional requirements is probably going to continue.

ThatÕs why, in addition to all its other problems, the Second Bush Administration still has a Taiwan issue whatever the benign interpretations of the elections outcome. sws-12-14-0