An Iraqi insurgency against the United States could be
supported by a range of Middle East neighbors.
A new report envisioned that Iraq's neighbors could provide the
financial support for a range of insurgency groups meant to ensure foreign
interests and undermine U.S. efforts to introduce democracy in Iraq. The
study said the foreign support could result in a confrontation between
Iraq's Shi'ite majority and Sunni Muslim minority.
The report did not elaborate. But U.S. officials have accused Iran of
seeking to dominate the Shi'ite majority while expressing concern that Saudi
Arabia has been funneling money to support Sunni clerics. Turkey is believed
to have been providing weapons and aid to Turkmens in northern Iraq, Middle East Newsline reported.
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The Washington Institute for Near East Policy did not rule out that
Middle East allies of the United States would contribute to Iraqi insurgency
groups after the fall of President Saddam Hussein. The institute said in the
report that all of Iraq's neighbors want to ensure influence in a
post-Saddam Iraq.
"Iraq's neighbors could decide to provide support to resistance groups,"
the report said. "Iran has a history of such activity, and Turkey, Syria,
and Saudi Arabia could choose to become involved as well."
Authored by retired U.S. government intelligence analyst Jeffrey White,
the report listed several sources of resistance to the U.S. military
presence in Iraq. They include former government officials, tribal elements,
and ethnic and religious groups.
"Moreover, the enormous amounts of cash in Iraq Ñ some of which has
disappeared during looting Ñ suggest that financing resistance might not be
a problem," the report said. "The country is also awash in small arms, light
crew-served weapons and explosives, the ideal instruments of armed
resistance."
The report said resistance appears to have been organized in such major
cities as Baghdad, Karbala, Mosul and Tikrit. Most of the leadership of the
ruling
Ba'ath Party disappeared and could be fomenting unrest that will lead
to attacks on U.S. forces.
The greatest danger to U.S. forces in Iraq, the report said, is the
prospect of Shi'ite-Sunni insurgency. The report envisioned local and
regional resistance, but said the prospect of a nationally-organized
insurgency appears remote in the short-term.
"The largely Shi'i south, with its extension into Baghdad, is the most
probable candidate for organized regional resistance," the report said.
"National resistance Ñ that is, resistance by one or mores groups operating
across the country and with similar objectives Ñ seems less likely than
regional resistance. Only the prolonged presence of coalition forces or
extended political instability are liable to create an environment in which
national resistance could become a real problem. Nevertheless, the potential
for Sunni-Shi'i cooperation needs to be monitored."
The report recommended a U.S. effort to repair Iraq's damaged
infrastructure, establish the basis for stable self-governance, and plan for
the withdrawal of coalition forces. The United States, however, must first
ensure "effective policing and intelligence services to identify and root
out dangerous opposition groups: in other words, a political police force."
"This will be a delicate task in a country that has been terrorized by
its police and security services for over thirty years, so the coalition
must be prepared to take over these responsibilities for some time." the
report said. "In addition, the Iraqi authorities must develop the capability
to intervene with whatever force is required to disrupt or eliminate armed
resistance. Again, and for largely the same reasons, this responsibility
will initially fall on coalition forces."
