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Vulnerabilities and a vortex of violence


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By John Metzler
SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM

Moday, Aug. 25, 2003

New York Ñ A massive power blackout darkened and disabled a huge swathe of the Northeast USA and Canada putting over fifty million people in the dark. Then a series of mysterious computer worms emerged and started knocking users off the internet. A heinous attack on the UN Headquarters in Baghdad was followed hours later by an equally vicious bus bomb in Jerusalem carried out by Hamas terrorists. The weekÕs events show a frightening vulnerability in technology and to terrorism both of which can be intertwined to bring our self-assured societies to the point of paralysis.

First the blackout. While it likely was an accident which spiraled out of control, the fact remains that population growth in many states has vastly outpaced the power supplies. California remains a prime example, but even in the Northeast, demand often pushes supply to the near breaking point. While everybody yammers that we need more electric Ñ conservation and construction of additional power plants are oft forgotten or forestalled. The Department of Energy estimates that over the next twenty years electric demand will increase 45% while additional transmission capacity will grow by only 4 percent.

The vulnerability of the grid to terrorists is without question. Clearly in the post-blackout debate, terrorists have no doubt been doing their homework to collect information, procedures, and weak links.

Computer worms have raised havoc in a different way. Though the Blaster bug is seemingly not fatal to hard drives, the constant shutdown of systems causes a not only frustration but loss of business productivity. While the FBI is rightly investigating whether this widespread spate of computer problems can be traced beyond the Microsoft- hating circuit, here too we can assume that Al Qaida operatives may try to attempt this tactic on a more focused and devastating level.

Cyber-warfare affecting air traffic control, power grids, or even medical records, can be far more devastating than the current pesky internet problems. Could this be a dry run for something bigger?? One has to assume that even if it is not, global terrorists have again learned vulnerabilities, capabilities, and response patterns. Our smug reliance on science and technology can thus be turned against us.

The bombing of UN HQ in Baghdad jolted the organization to the core. While no serious person believed the adage Òit couldnÕt happen here,Ó most UN staff rightfully felt that the organization was viewed by most Iraqis as impartial and near indispensable on the humanitarian front.

Thus the terrorists targeted the UN for precisely that reason Ñ massive destabilization.

In what has emerged as an old fashioned insurgency campaign, the terrorists target infrastructure specifically to let the Iraqi population know that the militants may hold the last laugh. When services and infrastructure collapse, people blame the U.S. and feel increasingly frustrated.

The tragic bombing itself was likely an inside job with Iraqi guards Ñ many of whom worked at the UN complex during the long showdown with Saddam Ñ still at the site. Most of these security staff were SaddamÕs agents, and it does not take too much imagination to feel that a few of them could be persuaded to look the other way to a wayward truck with explosives.

Would Washington now do well to get a second UN resolution to spread the political and military risk in Iraq? Perhaps. What appears as an increasingly common cause between the USA and the UN despite the initial disagreements, should be politically finessed by the Administration to garner wider European support.

The bus bombing in Jerusalem by Hamas Ñ classic raw terror Ñ was done not only to kill and maim people, but to kill the already maimed ceasefire between Israel and the Palestinians. Hamas does not want a Palestinian state now, but first a chaotic revolutionary upheaval which will not only incite further bloodshed but replace ÒmoderateÓ Palestinian leadership with those beholden to the men of violence.

In both Israel and Iraq, the goal of the Islamic militants remains disorder, disorientation and despair. Facing this chaotic witches brew, we are bluntly reminded that the region needs more than just an absence of Saddam but parallel pro-active political moves to bring about deeper lasting security.

John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.

Monday, Aug. 25, 2003




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