 Iraqi dawn: Early winners and losers
UNITED NATIONS Ñ The United States and its allies have unsheathed their terrible swift sword. The pounding and punishing air strikes Ñ the Shock and Awe strategy Ñ has been unleashed on Saddam HusseinÕs regime. The Marines and Army will gain a decisive momentum and soon be at the gates of Baghdad. President George W. Bush has finally begun to finish the job of total Iraqi disarmament, with the charge, ÒWe will accept no outcome but Victory.Ó The liberation of Iraq has begun.
The desultory diplomacy which characterized the final days before the military conflict illustrated that SaddamÕs primary game was keeping the clock running; conversely the Anglo/American coalition had run out of time given the impending weather. Secretary of State Colin Powell had been nearly pulled into the swirling vortex by the stillborn Security Council draft resolution but backed away from the UN impasse at the last moment.
Even in the early stages of the Iraqi operation there are already winners and losers. Literally in the day before the conflict France stated that if Iraq used chemical or biological weapons against US forces, the French would then come to our aid. This hint of a volte face by President Jacques Chirac, was as telling as it was transparent.
Translation from the French, ÒIf Iraq uses what we know they have but we thoroughly denied they have, we had better break with Baghdad after all.Ó ItÕs CYA classique.
The French know full well that when the gates of SaddamÕs Baghdad are battered down, embarrassing links to France Ñ and Germany, and Russia, and China Ñ will emerge as much more than just cozy commercial ties.
Another loser has been Turkey. The political indecision of the new IslamicøLite government not allowing the basing and transit of American forces through Turkey for a northern front in Iraq, has been genuinely harmful to AnkaraÕs national interests.
While a secular Moslem nation, Turkey has long played the role of the good, reliable, and tough guy in NATO. This stance has been compromised by AnkaraÕs political awkwardness, reducing a powerful player to a bit part actor.
Turkey has long been taken for granted, and its economic losses and interests in the wake of the 1991 Gulf War have not been properly appreciated in Western capitals. Yet, the blame here is not only WashingtonÕs for not offering enough financial incentives, but the bickering and feckless politicos in Ankara who literally missed the boat.
There were positive signals too. On the eve of the conflict, the Azores Summit played much more than a venue far from the political logjam of the UN Security Council. Here the leaders of the U.S., Britain, Spain, and the host Portugal not only agreed on the decisive next steps but did so in a clearly Atlantic setting. The imagery of Azores islands Ñ vital crossroads in the mid-Atlantic Ñ was part of the plan. So too the historical imagery of the Anglo/ Portuguese alliance, the oldest in the world.
But as PortugalÕs Prime Minister Jose Durao Barroso stressed that all parties should not forget nor forego the nature of friendship Ñ in other words, letÕs not fall into the short sighted and fickle view of many in the USA that Òwe donÕt need Europe or the Atlantic Alliance.Ó Needless to say that Portugal, a steadfast and true American friend, said what all sides needed to hear.
Still contrary to former Secretary of State James BakerÕs masterful coalition and alliance on the eve of the first Gulf War, Washington clearly has less diplomatic support this time round. While much has been made of the over forty countries joining the coalition against Saddam, the poignant fact remains that save for a few such as Australia, Japan and the Philippines, not many are among the political Òheavy hitters.Ó
So after twelve years of hide and seek shell games, Saddam is finally being brought to task. The swift and devastating dispatch of SaddamÕs loathsome regime will bring a new dawn for Iraq. For the long suffering Iraqi people, itÕs not a moment too soon.
John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense
issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.
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