President George Bush decided to turn to the United
Nations after being advised that the U.S. military was unprepared for a
war with Iraq.
Related factors included a simulated defeat of U.S. naval forces by Iraq in the Millennium Challenge military exercises last month and an intelligence dispute between the CIA and the DIA.
Western diplomatic sources said Bush's surprise call for the return of
UN weapons inspectors stemmed from a
recommendation by the Joint Chiefs of Staff that the United States required
up to six more months to prepare for any war against the regime of Iraqi
President Saddam Hussein. The sources said U.S. Central Command was
preoccupied with the the war in Afghanistan and possessed insufficient
assets, logistics, and supplies in countries that neighbor Iraq.
The shortcomings in the U.S. military were pointed out in the Millennium
Challenge exercise launched last month, Middle East Newsline reported. The exercise sought to simulate a
U.S. attack against a Middle East enemy that resembled Iraq.
Officials said in the simulation U.S. naval forces were decimated by an
Iraqi missile and weapons of mass destruction strike. The Iraqi side in the
exercise used cruise missiles to overwhelm the U.S. Navy's GS radar and sink
the entire simulated Blue Armada fleet of 16 ships.
The military's recommendation to delay any conflict came amid disputes
within the U.S. intelligence community over Iraq's nonconventional
capability and the willingness and ability of Iraqi opposition forces to
help bring down the
Saddam regime. The sources said the intelligence dispute pitted the CIA
against the Pentagon's Defense Intelligence Agency.
The Joint Chiefs also maintained that the military did not have enough
troops for the massive air attack promoted by the Pentagon. The sources said
the military chiefs said the Special Operations Command, with an estimated
30,000 troops, would have to be bolstered from other commands.
Officials said nearly 100,000 people have been activated for any war
with Iraq. But they said additional troops, including special operations
forces, would be needed. The special operations forces are said to have been
overstretched by such missions as the war in Afghanistan as well as
counterinsurgency missions in the Philippines and Yemen.
Concerns about the Millennium Challenge exercise came up in congressional hearings last week.
"[T]echniques used by the [Iraqi] Red Force under
the command of Lt. Gen. Van Ryper, a former Marine, might represent similar
tactics used by Iraq on the war against our forces," Sen. Pat Roberts, a
member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said.
"Despite a stark
disparity in the technological sophistication between the two sides, the U.S. forces
proved susceptible to the Somali's basic war-fighting tools, which included
the use of smoke pots to disorient the American troops and the communication
via word of mouth and drum beating. And that sort of hearkens back to
Somalia."
Roberts said in a hearing last week that the Joint Forces Command has so
far not analyzed the success of the simulated Iraqi side. He warned Gen.
Richard Myers, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, that the war
against Iraq would be neither an experiment nor an exercise.
The dispute within the intelligence community over Iraq prevented the
drafting of the National Intelligence Estimate for Bush. The estimate is an
analysis drafted mostly by the CIA, but which represents a consensus of
opinion by the intelligence community.
Secretary of State Colin Powell determined that the international
community was not ready to either support the toppling of Saddam or help
rebuild Iraq after the fall of the regime. Powell had also warned that the
United States needed more time to conclude agreements for the deployment of
large numbers of U.S. troops and military assets in Turkey and Gulf
Cooperation Council states.
"Faced with such opposition, Bush felt he needed time and so he took
Powell's advice and returned to the Security Council," a diplomatic source
with intimate knowledge of the administration said. "For Bush, this is a
move that is fraught with uncertainty."
The only quarter that supported an imminent attack against Saddam, the
sources said, was the civilian leadership of the Defense Department. Defense
officials said defense officials such as Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld,
his deputy Paul
Wolfowitz, and chairman of the Defense Policy Board, Richard Perle, argued
that the United States did not need international support to crush the
Saddam regime.
"We have a force-sizing construct and a strategy that enables the United
States of America to engage in two major conflicts, near simultaneously, to
win decisively in one and occupy the country, to swiftly defeat in the other
case," Rumsfeld said. "The United States military will be prepared to do
whatever the president orders, and do it well."
Rumsfeld and other senior Pentagon officials were said to have opposed
Powell's proposal to seek the return of UN inspectors to Iraq, arguing that
this would buy up to a year for Saddam. The officials argued that the UN
Monitoring, Verification, and Inspection Commission would require at least
six months to arrange for a presence in Iraq.
But Powell and the chiefs, supported by former leading officials in the
first Bush administration, were said to have presented a more convincing
case, the sources said. They said many in Congress were urging that the Iraq
issue be referred to the Security Council as the administration builds
support within the United States and abroad.
A diplomatic source who has been monitoring U.S. troop deployment in the
Middle East said Western intelligence agencies have been surprised by the
slow pace of the military buildup. The source said the process of moving
troops and commands to Turkey and the Persian Gulf region has not
demonstrated Bush's intention for an imminent war.
"The idea of a November war was unrealistic as the United States is now
only beginning the process of transferring commands to Kuwait and Qatar,"
the source said. "Moreover, the pace of the troop deployment suggests that
there
will not be a war against Iraq this year."
