World Tribune.com

Get a Great Deal from Dell Home Systems!

CIA: Missile threat by 2015
from Iraq, Iran, N. Korea

SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM
Thursday, January 10, 2002

WASHINGTON Ñ A new CIA report warns that proliferation has enabled Iran, Iraq and North Korea "to accelerate missile development."

The report by the National Intelligence Council, a CIA-based interagency analysis group, said Washington will face the threat of a ballistic missile attack from these three countries by 2015.

The report cited North Korea's Taepo Dong-2 missile as being able to reach the United States with a nuclear warhead. The CIA said the missile could be ready for a flight test. A classified report was sent to Congress last month.

North Korea has pledged to extend a moratorium on intermediate- and long-range missile tests until 2003. North Korea is regarded as the leading missile exporter to the Middle East, Middle East Newsline reported.

"Emerging ballistic missile states continue to increase the range, reliability and accuracy of the missile systems in their inventories Ñ posing ever greater risks to U.S. forces, interests, and allies throughout the world," the intelligence report, released on Wednesday, said.

Proliferation of technology, materials and expertise Ñ especially by Russian, Chinese and North Korean entities Ñ "has enabled emerging missile states to accelerate missile development, acquire new capabilities, and potentially develop even more capable and longer range future systems."

The National Intelligence Estimate did not record any revisions in previous assessments of the missile threats from the three countries.

The report said Iran continues to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile that can also launch satellites. The CIA said Iran could launch such a missile within a few years although it suggested a dispute between U.S. intelligence agencies. The chief suppliers of missile technology to Iran were China, North Korea and Russia.

"All agencies agree that Iran could attempt a launch in mid-decade," the report, which covers the last half of 2000, said, "but Teheran is likely to take until the last half of the decade to flight test an ICBM/SLV. One agency further believes that Iran is unlikely to conduct a successful test until after 2015."

The agencies that contributed to the national intelligence estimate include the CIA, the Pentagon's Defense Intelligence Agency, the White House-aligned National Security Agency, the State Department intelligence division and military intelligence units.

Regarding Iraq, the U.S. report said the regime of President Saddam Hussein is focusing on improving its short-range missile arsenal. But Baghdad is preparing to resume development of intermediate-range missiles once United Nations sanctions are lifted.

"All agencies agree that Iraq could test different ICBM concepts before 2015 if UN prohibitions were eliminated in the next few years," the report said. "Most agencies, however, believe it is unlikely to do so, even if the prohibitions were eliminated."

The report also said Iraq is far from completing a nuclear weapon. "The intelligence community estimates that Iraq, unconstrained, would take several years to produce enough fissile material to make a weapon," the report said.

The CIA said the missile capability of Iran, Iraq and North Korea dwarfs that of Russia. The report said Russia's nuclear missile arsenal will decrease to fewer than 2,000 warheads by 2015.

Print this Article Print this Article Email this article Email this article Subscribe to this Feature Free Headline Alerts