ANKARA Ñ Western diplomatic sources said a win by an Islamic party with a controversial leader in
parliamentary elections on Sunday could pose a threat to U.S. plans to gain
Turkish cooperation against Iraq. The outgoing government of Prime Minister
Bulent Ecevit has opposed any war against Baghdad but as a NATO member
Turkey was expected to follow any U.S. decision.
With 72 percent of the ballots counted from Sunday's vote, the Islamic Justice and Development Party had 34 percent support and appeared likely able to form a government without coalition partners Ñ a rarity in Turkish politics. Its campaign was fueled by anger over Turkey's worst economic crisis in decades.
The party is led by Islamic politicians
although leaders maintain that they are a secular conservative movement. In
contrast, polls predict that none of the parties that make up the ruling
coalition will enter parliament. About 40 million Turks were eligible to
vote, Middle East Newsline reported.
Party leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a former mayor of Istanbul and
convicted of inciting religious hatred, was banned from running in the
elections on grounds that he does not support Turkey's secular constitution.
Authorities had also sought to ban the party from running.
"The elections could usher in a major realignment of the Turkish
political landscape, perhaps bringing a party with
Islamist pedigree Ñ the Justice and Development Party Ñ to power," Soner
Cagaptay, a leading Turkish analyst at the Washington Institute for Near
East Policy, said. "Should Washington worry about the foreign policy
orientation of a new Turkish administration and its willingness to support a
military campaign against Iraq?"
On Monday, Turkish Chief of Staff Gen. Hilmi Ozkok arrives in the United
States for strategic talks with Washington regarding Ankara's help in any a
war against Iraq. Ozkok will be hosted by Gen. Richard Myers, chairman of
the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Erdogan is expected to be the guide of any government led by the Justice
and Development Party. As mayor of Istanbul in 1994, Erdogan banned alcohol
in restaurants run by the municipality, opposed Turkey's entry into the
European Union and called for Ankara's withdrawal from NATO.
"During my entire political career, I have never seen such an election,"
Ecevit said. "We are entering a period in which who will become prime
minister is unclear."
On Friday, Turkey's Constitutional Court gave Erdogan 15 days to prepare
his argument that he should be allowed to lead the party. A previous court
ruling ordered Erdogan to step down as member of the party.
Turkish officials and analysts have expressed concern that an Islamic
victory will mean that Erdogan will control the government from behind the
scenes. They said this will
weaken Western support for Turkey, which requires billions of dollars of
international loans and aid to support the economy.
Last week, the International Monetary Fund warned of a further
deterioration of the economy and an increase in Turkey's external debt. The
IMF said a war against Iraq would harm tourism to Turkey and spark a hike in
oil prices.
Turkish President Ahmet Necdet Sezer raised the prospect that regardless
of the court decision he would
not appoint Erdogan or one of his allies as prime minister. Sezer said he
has the authority to select any member of parliament for the post of
premier.
Cagaptay, the Washington Institute researcher, said the Bush
administration might be given breathing space regarding Turkey's new
government. "Past experience shows that such coalitions take a long time to
form in Turkey, sometimes up to two months," Cagaptay said. "Hence, a new
government may not be in office in Ankara before the end of the year. Until
then, Washington may have to deal with the current government regarding any
action on Iraq."