World Tribune.com
New

Win by Islamic party in Turkey could impact U.S. war plans

SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM
Monday, November 4, 2002

ANKARA Ñ Western diplomatic sources said a win by an Islamic party with a controversial leader in parliamentary elections on Sunday could pose a threat to U.S. plans to gain Turkish cooperation against Iraq. The outgoing government of Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit has opposed any war against Baghdad but as a NATO member Turkey was expected to follow any U.S. decision.

With 72 percent of the ballots counted from Sunday's vote, the Islamic Justice and Development Party had 34 percent support and appeared likely able to form a government without coalition partners Ñ a rarity in Turkish politics. Its campaign was fueled by anger over Turkey's worst economic crisis in decades.

The party is led by Islamic politicians although leaders maintain that they are a secular conservative movement. In contrast, polls predict that none of the parties that make up the ruling coalition will enter parliament. About 40 million Turks were eligible to vote, Middle East Newsline reported.



Party leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a former mayor of Istanbul and convicted of inciting religious hatred, was banned from running in the elections on grounds that he does not support Turkey's secular constitution. Authorities had also sought to ban the party from running.

"The elections could usher in a major realignment of the Turkish political landscape, perhaps bringing a party with Islamist pedigree Ñ the Justice and Development Party Ñ to power," Soner Cagaptay, a leading Turkish analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said. "Should Washington worry about the foreign policy orientation of a new Turkish administration and its willingness to support a military campaign against Iraq?"

On Monday, Turkish Chief of Staff Gen. Hilmi Ozkok arrives in the United States for strategic talks with Washington regarding Ankara's help in any a war against Iraq. Ozkok will be hosted by Gen. Richard Myers, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Erdogan is expected to be the guide of any government led by the Justice and Development Party. As mayor of Istanbul in 1994, Erdogan banned alcohol in restaurants run by the municipality, opposed Turkey's entry into the European Union and called for Ankara's withdrawal from NATO.

"During my entire political career, I have never seen such an election," Ecevit said. "We are entering a period in which who will become prime minister is unclear."

On Friday, Turkey's Constitutional Court gave Erdogan 15 days to prepare his argument that he should be allowed to lead the party. A previous court ruling ordered Erdogan to step down as member of the party.

Turkish officials and analysts have expressed concern that an Islamic victory will mean that Erdogan will control the government from behind the scenes. They said this will weaken Western support for Turkey, which requires billions of dollars of international loans and aid to support the economy.

Last week, the International Monetary Fund warned of a further deterioration of the economy and an increase in Turkey's external debt. The IMF said a war against Iraq would harm tourism to Turkey and spark a hike in oil prices.

Turkish President Ahmet Necdet Sezer raised the prospect that regardless of the court decision he would not appoint Erdogan or one of his allies as prime minister. Sezer said he has the authority to select any member of parliament for the post of premier.

Cagaptay, the Washington Institute researcher, said the Bush administration might be given breathing space regarding Turkey's new government. "Past experience shows that such coalitions take a long time to form in Turkey, sometimes up to two months," Cagaptay said. "Hence, a new government may not be in office in Ankara before the end of the year. Until then, Washington may have to deal with the current government regarding any action on Iraq."

Print this Article Print this Article Email this article Email this article Subscribe to this Feature Free Headline Alerts
Google
Search Worldwide Web Search WorldTribune.com Search WorldTrib Archives

See current edition of Geostrategy-Direct.com

Return to World Tribune.com Front Cover

Back to School Sweepstakes