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Report: Sarin warhead could kill thousands of Israelis

SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM
Thursday, October 3, 2002

Thousands of Israelis could be killed in an Iraqi weapons of mass destruction attack on a major city.

A report by the Washington-based Heritage Foundation examined the affects of an Iraqi nonconventional weapons attack on Tel Aviv. The coastal Israeli city, with a population of 400,000, was Iraq's favorite target for conventional missiles attacks during the 1991 Gulf war, Middle East Newsline reported.

The foundation, regarded as being close to the White House and U.S. Defense Department, said an Iraqi sarin attack could kill up to 3,000 Israelis. The report based the assessment on an Iraqi attack with a warhead using 400 kilograms of sarin and an unprotected Tel Aviv population.

The report said a strike of one Iraqi missile with a sarin warhead on Tel Aviv could injure 56,000 people. In all, the foundation assesses that casualties would reach 59,000 casualties.

"Iraq has admittedly tested chemical and biological weapons in the past," the report, authored by Dexter Ingram, said. "It's believed that between six months and two years Iraq could become a nuclear threat. The threat is real."

Israeli officials said authorities have prepared enough masks for everybody in the country. The officials said the masks can protect against biological and chemical agents.

The report said an Iraqi missile filled with botulinum would kill 50,000 if it struck Tel Aviv. Such a missile would need 500 kilograms of the toxin.

Ingram, a threat assessment specialist and former U.S. naval officer, said one Iraqi missile filled with VX nerve gas would kill 43,000 people. The casualty assessment was based on a warhead filled with 450 kilograms of VX and an unprotected civilian population.

A successful Israeli intercept of an Iraqi WMD missile would also result in casualties. The report said an intercept of an Iraqi VX warhead could kill up to 600 people. All of the casualties would take place in Jordan, Israel's eastern neighbor.

The report, presented in Washington on Sept. 25, said an Iraqi kiloton nuclear warhead that struck Tel Aviv would kill 75,000 people. Such a warhead is similar to that the United States used against Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945.

Tel Aviv is located about 400 kilometers from the western Iraqi border and well within range of Baghdad's arsenal of Al Hussein missiles. The missile has a range of 650 kilometers and U.S. analysts believe the regime of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein could have up to 80 such missiles, which could be tipped with biological and chemical warheads.

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