LONDON Ñ Iraq's arsenal of short- and medium-range missiles has been
deemed as largely incapable of delivering weapons of mass destruction.
But a report by the London-based International Institute for Strategic
Studies said that the regime of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein has about a dozen missiles with such capability. And while the regime is not believed to have nuclear weapons, it could build them quickly if it acquired sufficient fissile
material.
The institute said Iraq can produce large amounts of biological and
chemical weapons agents, Middle East Newsline reported. But the report
said Iraq appears to lack the impact fusing and warhead design to
effectively disseminate WMD.
"BW agent could be delivered by short range munitions including
artillery shells and rockets," the report said. "Delivery by ballistic
missile is more problematic given that much of the agent would be destroyed
on impact and the immediate area of dispersal would be small."
"Iraq has probably retained a small force of about a dozen 650-kilometer
range Al Hussein missiles," institute director and author of the report John
Chipman said on Monday. "They could be armed with CBW warheads. These could
strike Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran and Kuwait."
The institute's estimate is much
smaller than that of the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace, which believes the Saddam regime could have up to 80
such missiles.
The regime is also believed to have a
small number of short-range Al Samoud missiles with a range of 200
kilometers, the London-based institute said. All of Iraq's missiles are
believed to be equipped with impact fuses, which disseminates its payload
upon impact.
The report said Iraqi missiles are also incapable of spreading chemical
weapons.
As a result, the report said, Iraq could choose other means to deliver
WMD.
The institute cited Iraq's conversion of the Czech L-29 trainer aircraft
into unmanned air vehicles, which could reach a range of 600 kilometers.
"Civilian casualties could still be in the hundreds or thousands," the
report said. "Refurbished L-29 trainer aircraft could operate as
weapons-carrying UAVs with a range of over 600 kilometers. Such UAVs, in
theory, would be considerably more effective than ballistic missiles in
delivering CBW [chemical, biological warheads]."
The institute said Iraq no longer maintains the facilities to produce
long-range missiles. Saddam, the report said, would require several years
and extensive foreign assistance to construct such facilities but could
manufacture what it described as rudimentary biological and chemical
warheads.
