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OAS, Jimmy Carter's institute wade into Venezuela mess


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By Claudio Campuzano
SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM

September 13, 2002

In the last few years, the Organization of American States Ñ that gathers all countries in Latin America plus the United States and Canada Ñ had been losing whatever clout it had in the hemisphere, which was never much. Right now, however, it is making a comeback with a most unusual mediation role, heading a team that includes the United Nations and the Atlanta-based Carter Center Ñ which was set up by former U.S. President Jimmy Carter Ñ that is trying to resolve differences in Venezuela between the government headed by President Hugo Ch‡vez and the opposition.

The principle of "no intervention" by one country, or countries, in the political affairs of another has long been one of the most treasured tenets held by Latin American nations, and nobody can remember any previous case in which foreign agents, albeit not governments, were welcome in a Latin American country as mediators in a domestic political dispute.

The mission is meant to broker a dialogue between Ch‡vez and opposition parties, business leaders and labor unions. It has the purpose of attenuating the deep polarization between government and opposition that threatens to trigger another upheaval like the April 12-14 coup that temporarily ousted Ch‡vez and left dozens dead in protests and rioting.

"We understand that Venezuela's problems must be resolved only by Venezuelans," said OAS delegate Fernando Jaramillo after the group met with President Ch‡vez. "Our work in Venezuela is oriented toward promoting the rule of law, co-existence and respect to the democratic order."

Even though it was a closed-door meeting, it became known that Ch‡vez reiterated his refusal to cede to opposition demands for early presidential elections. Ch‡vez urged opposition leaders insisting on his removal to wait until August 2003 Ñ when the constitution would allow a referendum on his term. Opposition politicians insist Venezuelans are too polarized over Ch‡vez's government to wait that long. They argue early elections are the only way to prevent a new coup.

"We, as the legitimate government . . . cannot negotiate with sectors promoting a coup, violence, or who don't recognize constitutional principles," Ch‡vez said. "I can leave the presidency after a referendum takes place in 2003. If I lose the referendum Ñ that's the only way Hugo Ch‡vez can leave before his term ends."

Ch‡vez's opponents insist they will only meet with the president to discuss early elections. The president's approval ratings stand at just over 30 percent, a dramatic plunge from the more than 60 percent he enjoyed for two years after he was elected. The former army paratrooper is accused of fueling social class division with incendiary rhetoric, accumulating authoritarian powers and plunging the economy into recession with inefficient management.

Venezuela's economy contracted nearly 10 percent in the second quarter, one of the sharpest quarterly declines in the nation's history, as a slide in its vital oil revenue trimmed economic growth.

Gross domestic product shrank 9.9 percent compared with a year earlier as the petroleum sector of the world's No. 5 oil exporter contracted 16.7 percent and its non-petroleum sector shrank 6.5 percent.

Analysts and economists said the second-quarter figures were bleaker than they had expected and forecast a worsening economic outlook for the South American nation.

For the first half of the year, Venezuela's economy contracted 7.1 percent, compared with contraction of 1.4 percent during the first half of 2001.

Venezuelan President Hugo Ch‡vez said he was confident of a reactivation of the economy in the second half of the year, but also partly blamed the nation's economic woes on the impact of April's brief coup against his government. However, Minister of Production and Commerce Ramon Rosales said Venezuela should not expect a second-half recovery to completely wipe out the steep declines.

Six weeks of protests by employees of giant state oil firm Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), leading up to the April 11-14 uprising against President Hugo Ch‡vez, temporarily crippled the nation's petroleum exports.

Venezuela's government, still mired in political turmoil after the uprising, is scrambling to cover as much as $9 billion in financing needs this year amid spiraling inflation and a deep devaluation of the bolivar currency. Inflation is already at more than 22 percent, and private economists forecast the figure may climb to 30 percent by year-end. The bolivar is down more than 46 percent against the dollar so far this year; its fall accelerated after the government floated the local currency in February. No mediation by third parties, even if successful, would change this.

Venezuela's worsening economic crisis could erode support for Ch‡vez and trigger early elections, possibly by the end of this year, said Enrique Mendoza, Miranda State governor and an opposition figure often tipped by polls as a possible presidential rival, adding that the recession could hasten the end of Ch‡vez's self-styled "revolution."

Claudio Campuzano (claudio-campuzano@hotmail.com) is U.S, correspondent for the Latin American newsweekly Tiempos del Mundo and editorial page editor of the New York daily Noticias del Mundo. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com

September 13, 2002



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