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Monday, May 24, 2010     INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING

U.S. fears new war, genocide in Sudan by 2011

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Director of National Intelligence has warned that civil war could again erupt in Sudan.

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Officials said the administration of President Barack Obama has been closely monitoring the erosion of peace arrangements in southern Sudan. They said both the southerners as well as the Khartoum regime have been rearming for what could result in another war in 2011.

"A new mass killing or genocide is most likely to occur in southern Sudan," U.S. National Intelligence Director Dennis Blair said.

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The administration has acknowledged that U.S. efforts to determine the fate of southern Sudan were failing. Officials said Khartoum and the southern Sudanese administration have not kept pace with the schedule for a referendum on independence, including delineating borders and oil resources.

"We have to redouble our efforts," U.S. special envoy to Sudan J. Scott Gration said. "I think it's possible to get done everything we need to get done. But we can't waste another minute."

In testimony to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on May 19, Gration, a retired Air Force general, warned that civil liberties were on the decline in Sudan. He said the Sudanese elections in April 2010 had been marred by widespread violations in what could portend trouble for the south.

"We have to take lessons from the election," Gration said.

At the hearing, senators urged the administration to expand efforts to prevent Sudan from again sliding into civil war. Several committee members said the White House must launch high-level intervention to facilitate the referendum.

"I think you ought to get a little more leverage on this effort, because I don't think it's going to happen at the current pace," Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman Sen. John Kerry said.

The Obama administration has sought to help secure the southern Sudanese administration ahead of the referendum, expected to be held in January 2011. The U.S. firm DynCorp International has been contracted to enhance law enforcement in the autonomous south.

"In order to prevent a return to full-scale, national war, the U.S. must marshal more resources, exert more pressure, and hold all parties accountable," John Norris, executive director of the anti-genocide Enough Project, told the Senate committee.



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