"Since the signing of the 2009 Security Agreement, we are guests in
Iraq, and after six years in Iraq, we now smell bad to the Iraqi nose," the
memorandum, titled "It's Time for the U.S. to Declare Victory and Go Home,"
said. "The potential for Iraqi on U.S. violence is high now and will grow by
the day.
"Resentment on both sides will build and reinforce itself until a
violent incident break outs into the open," the memo continued. "If that
were to happen the violence will remain tactically isolated, but it will
wreck our strategic
relationships and force our withdrawal under very unfavorable
circumstances."
The memo, first published by the New York Times on July 30, reported a
drastic change in attitude by the Iraq Army since the U.S. military
withdrawal from
cities on June 30. Reese said Iraq has imposed "unilateral restrictions on
U.S. forces that violate the most basic aspects" of the Status of Forces
Agreement signed in late 2008.
"Sudden coolness to advisors and CDRs, lack of invitations to meetings,"
the memo, written in mid-July, said. "ISF [Iraqi security forces] units are
far less likely to want to conduct combined combat operations with U.S.
forces, to go after targets the U.S. considers high value, etc."
Reese, a senior military adviser who for years has advocated a U.S.
withdrawal, reported
provocations by Iraqi military units around Baghdad. He said Iraqi soldiers
have been confronting their U.S. counterparts in several areas of Baghdad
and other major cities.
The memo asserted that Iraq's military and security forces, without
American help, have managed to counter both Al Qaida and Iranian-backed
insurgency threats in wake of the June 30 U.S. military redeployment. Reese
said Al Qaida has been significantly weakened and Shi'ite insurgents have
been restrained from conducting attacks.
"ISF military capability is sufficient to handle the current level of
threats from Sunni and Shiite violent groups," the memo said. "Our combat
forces' presence here on the streets and in the rural areas adds only
marginally to their capability while exposing us to attacks to which we
cannot effectively respond."
"Today the Iraqi security forces are good enough to keep the government
of Iraq from being overthrown by the actions of Al Qaida in Iraq, the
Baathists, and the Shia violent extremists that might have toppled it a year
or two ago," the memo said. "Iraq may well collapse into chaos of other
causes, but we have made the ISF strong enough for the internal security
mission."
Officials said Reese, who recommended an accelerated withdrawal from
Iraq, expressed the assessment within the administration of President Barack
Obama. On July 29, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said the Pentagon would
consider an accelerated
pullout amid a pledge by Obama for a withdrawal of all combat troops by
August 2010.
The memo asserted that the U.S. military could no longer influence
Iraq's military or police. Reese said the rate of improvement of Iraqi
security forces, still dominated by Baathist culture, has dwindled amid
Baghdad's increasing opposition to a partnership with the United States.
"We have reached the point of diminishing returns, however, and need to
find a new set of tools," Reese said. "The massive partnering efforts of
U.S. combat forces with ISF isn't yielding benefits commensurate with the
effort and is now generating its own opposition. If there ever was a window
where the seeds of a professional military culture could have been
implanted, it is now long past. U.S. combat forces will not be here long
enough or with sufficient influence to change it."
Reese, in an assertion echoed by other U.S. officers, reported
widespread corruption, nepotism, lack of initiative and laziness in the
Iraqi security forces. He said senior Iraqi commanders, despite massive U.S.
help, have been unable to change this.
"They are unable to instill discipline among their officers and units
for the most basic military standards," the memo said. "They are unable to
take
basic steps to manage the force development process. They are unable to
stick to their deals with U.S. leaders."
The memo called for a complete military withdrawal by August 2010. In
the
meantime, Reese said, the United States should press Baghdad for a new
agreement that would ensure a long-term American military presence within
one to three air bases.
"But it should not include the presence of any combat forces save those
for force protection needs or the occasional exercise," Reese said."
Finally, it will set the conditions for a new relationship between the U.S.
and Iraq without the complications of the residual effects of the U.S.
invasion and occupation."
