Bosnia will represent the East European group, replacing fellow ex-Yugoslav republic Croatia. Earlier in the year, this seat was going to be contested by Poland, but the Warsaw government dropped out early in the face of BosniaŐs strong and determined bid. Bosnia received strong backing from Muslim states and thus proved a strong contender.
Brazil easily won the Latin American seat to replace Costa Rica. Brazil a regional economic powerhouse and a serious contender for a permanent place at the table if and when the UN ever gets around to its long-awaited Security Council expansion, should bring a gravitas to the Council deliberations.
The African group shall see both Nigeria and Gabon replacing Burkina Faso and Libya. Here itŐs a triumph of two regional petroleum producer heavy weights. Nigeria is a heavyweight in the Commonwealth while Gabon is closely linked to the French Francophonie. Balance is achieved.
For the Asian group, Lebanon will replace Vietnam. Both are members of the French linguistic Francophonie.
The five new members will sit alongside the other non-permanent members who have another year left on the Council; namely; Austria, Japan, Mexico, Turkey and Uganda.
Looking at the new list from my index of political freedoms gain-loss analysis, a few points emerge. Bosnia and Croatia are clearly Western leaning, so the status quo holds.
Brazil replaces Costa Rica. While both governments are pro-West, Brazil is a player, who while occasionally prone to surprise us, should be just fine. As an emerging economy, energy giant, and member of the G-20 Group of industrial states, Brazil can be expected to more openly lobby for Security Council reform. And recently Rio de Janeiro, won its bid to host the 2016 Olympics in a move seen as a growing positive profile for the Portuguese-speaking South American giant.
The African members present a positive too. Both Nigeria and Gabon are status quo petro-states and are realistic countries. Libya leaving the Council presents a net gain.
Equally in Asia. Lebanon is a moderate Middle-East state sadly under the shadow of Syria and Islamic Iran. This Council membership could provide a good political safety insurance policy. ThereŐ a large UN peacekeeping force (UNIFIL) on LebanonŐs territory, (along with destabilizing HezbollahŐs militia),a legacy of this small countryŐs history and geographic neighborhood.
Although it has moderated its positions in recent years, having Vietnam off the Council is no great loss. Though Vietnam has allowed social and economic changes for the better, the political regime remains authoritarian and not a force for freedom.
Overall the CouncilŐs composition for the upcoming year 2010 presents a positive tilt; two regional powers Brazil and Nigeria join the membership and will sit alongside Japan.
But before anybody thinks the annual ritual for Security Council selection is just a polite diplomatic minuet of musical chairs, Germany has already put its name in consideration and is presenting its noteworthy credentials for the upcoming 2011-2012 session.
Membership at the decision making Security Council is naturally about national status but more important being a global player.
