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John Metzler Archive
Friday, June 26, 2009

Iraq without training wheels

UNITED NATIONS Ñ Remember Iraq? Indeed what was to have been the Òdefining issueÓ of last yearÕs presidential election and a potent political flashpoint, has largely faded from the headlines. To be sure the perilous economic situation and a spate of foreign policy crises from Iran to nuclear North Korea have grabbed attention. Now as U.S. forces prepare to pullout of Iraqi cities, the besieged mideast state will increasingly have to stand on its own, without the American security training wheels.

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Iraq is still recovering from the political and economic trauma of the Saddam Hussein dictatorship, the 2003 war, and the ensuing insurgency. Though the U.S. military surge in 2007 proved successful, thereÕs still a long road ahead to ensure enduring security.

A recently released UN report while praising Òencouraging signs of progress,Ó and conceding Òalthough the overall security situation in Iraq has improved since 2008, the recent spike in indiscriminate and violent mass attacks continues to cause unacceptably high civilian casualties, demonstrating that important security challenges remain.Ó

The document adds, ÒAlthough there have been a demonstrable reduction in insurgent activity across the country in the past 12 months, there are still armed groups determined to incite sectarian violence and undermine public confidence in the governmentÕs capability to provide effective security,Ó

IraqÕs UN Ambassador Hamid a-Bayati in a Security Council statement said that the period, Ò between March and May 2009 witnessed a decline in the number of acts of violence by 76 percent as compared to the same period in 2008; an improvement confirming the development of the Iraqi security forces capability and the significant decline in the capabilities of terrorist groups.Ó

But in the nervous countdown to the handover, bombings have spiked and over a hundred innocent civilians have been killed or maimed. As Iraqi security forces carry the brunt of urban patrols and security, there could be a surge in militant attacks. U.S. troop numbers only marginally reduced from 142,000 in January to 133,000 today, still will be able to assist the Iraqi forces in emergencies, but with far less tactical flexibility.

But six years after the war, with the transfer of security responsibilities from the U.S. to the Iraqi forces thereÕs another deeper problem; political and ethnic reconciliation inside the country, especially between the Sunni Muslim minority and majority Shiites. The UN concedes Òthe reconciliation process remains delicate.Ó

Still there are positive signs; displaced or refugee families are returning home. Since early 2008, some 50,000 families, mostly internally displaced, came back to Iraq. Humanitarian assistance for refugees living abroad (mostly in Jordan and Syria) as well as those internally displaced in Iraq remains a major item for international donors.

Even today the World Food Program is providing aid for 630,000 internally displaced people inside the country.

Still the security situation precludes a wider operations for the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI). Given devastating bomb attacks on the UN Baghdad headquarters in 2003, the world body still has a very limited ÒfootprintÓ inside Iraq itself. The Report stresses, ÒThe recovery of Iraq is entering a different phaseÉas the security situation improves, the United Nations will continue to strive to expand its presence and activities in Iraq consistent with the needs of Iraq.Ó The report warns poignantly ÒHowever Iraq remains a challenging operating environment, and the safety and security of United Nations personnelÓ remains a priority.

IraqÕs semblance of security has come at a very high price in American blood, sweat, tears and treasure. It evolved in no small part to the success of the military surge, the strategy of General David Petraeus, and to the enduring sacrifices of the multi-national coalition forces; Americans, British, Australians, Poles and two dozen other countries who did not blink nor falter when the insurgency was at its zenith. It equally rested with the Bush AdministrationÕs largely unpopular political commitment to Iraq, and the Obama AdministrationÕs stoic acceptance of the need to go slow with troop withdrawals.

As Ambassador al-Bayti told delegates, ÒNational reconciliation remains a top priority for my government.Ó That priority should extend to the U.S. Congressional Democrats as well.


John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He writes weekly for WorldTribune.com.


Comments


EDITORS' NOTE: John Metzler replies that reader Agim Doda is "absolutely correct Ñ two countries in South America now recognize Kosovo." The above column reflects the correction.

The Editors for John Metzler      2:17 p.m. / Saturday, June 20, 2009


You fail to mention that other violation of international law: the recommendations of the Badinter commission. By declaring Yugoslavia "dissolving" it gave the Western countries an excuse to ignore international law and Yugoslavia's constitution and recognize Slovenia and Croatia. If Yugoslavia had been dissolved by mutual consensus - as its constitution demanded and as happened in the Soviet Union and Czechoslaviakia - war would very probably have been avoided.

Wim Roffel      5:23 a.m. / Saturday, June 20, 2009


In his article ÒOverlooked geopolitical precedents in Georgia and KosovoÓ, John J. Metzler states that no country of South America has recognized Kosovo. This statement is erroneous since two South American countries Peru and Colombia have recognized Kosovo. Furthermore Costa Rica, Belize and Panama, countries of Central America, have recognized Kosovo as well.

Agim Doda      4:30 p.m. / Friday, June 19, 2009


It's funny how you fail to mention the murder of Serbian police and soldiers prior to 1998,the continued harrassment of Serb civilians since the 1980's as mentioned by David Binder of the New York Times. I would love for you or anyone else to tell me which country has ever accepted the murder of its policemen and soldiers. If I am correct America just sentenced 3 Albanians to life in jail for "plotting" to kill soldiers at Ft Dix.

Dragan      4:30 p.m. / Friday, June 19, 2009

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