The daunting year ahead, for the economy, China, and Barack Obama
Friday, January 2, 2009 Free Headline Alerts
By John Metzler
BENNINGTON, Vermont — With my crystal ball somewhat clouded by a snowstorm, I’m still going ahead to predict some trends our weary and jolted world can expect in the new year. Given the financial meltdown and the global economic doldrums, optimism remains in predictably short supply. So let’s face the facts and let realism be our guide in viewing some key issues.
Global Economy: The Autumn 2008 Financial meltdown has done irreparable damage to the USA and the world in general. The individual Wall Street crooks who in many cases created this crisis should be unceremoniously indicted, prosecuted, and punished if guilty. The economy has drifted into rocky recessionary shoals not seen since the late 1970’s. This was not a failure of free market capitalism as is so glibly stated, but the long-looming outcome of casino capitalism, fueled by play money, and marinated in a cozy relationship of gazillionaries with politicians.
Now the people are stuck with the results—and the bill. The new Democrat answer will be a repackaged “New Deal” which will probably, as in FDR’s case in the 1930’s, make matters worse. Massive profligate big government spending is certain to stoke inflationary embers and deepen the public debt. The good news is that petroleum prices have significantly fallen over last summer’s highs. Equally the American unemployment numbers are far below Europe’s.
East Asia: The story is China and China. Following the afterglow of the successful Beijing Olympics, the tough hurdles ahead are economic. Slowdown in the West (read where Chinese exports flood) means factory closings and massive unemployment on the Mainland. There’s no great social net to help workers either, so there’s a large mass of unemployed and rootless labor shifting around China. Citizens who were duly impressed, and politically bought-off by the People’s Republic’s economic (or at least statistical) achievements, may now look to the political sorcerers. China’s ruling Communist Party (CCP) will have to confront this dilemma and find scapegoats. Which brings us to the other China; shall Beijing use the economic downturn to stoke nationalism and bully tactics? The Republic of China on Taiwan is being maneuvered into a situation which threatens its freedom and sovereignty in not daring to displease the dragon.
South Asia: Afghanistan and Pakistan are fertile grounds for destabilization. The recent terror attacks in India, growing violence in Afghanistan, and tensions in divided Kashmir, fought over by both nuclear-armed Pakistan and India, remains a political tinderbox and cause for Islamic jihadis with regional implications.
Middle East: Iraq, now far better off after the U.S. military surge, has room to build and improve. Yet Hamas violent incitements in Gaza will keep the pot boiling with Israel. In Lebanon Hizbullah, via Iran’s hidden hand, is poised for serious mischief. The Islamic Republic of Iran will “celebrate” the 30th anniversary of the shroud of political gloom which the mullahs pulled over once proud Persia. They will revel in their nuclear gains, and spitefully show the West that they got away with it.
Russia: Despite the neo-imperial impulses by Vladimir Putin, the good news is that the petrodollars flowing into Kremlin coffers are dwindling and cutting Russia’s global clout. But watch Ukraine; it can certainly be bullied by the Bear over natural gas supplies, and moreover through political subversion from Russia. While Georgia’s Summer war was a tragic surprise, the chess piece on the board Putin covets remains Ukraine.
Latin America: Despite the danger of Hugo Chavez, the good news is oil prices are down which diminishes Venezuela’s role. Cuba celebrates the 50th anniversary of Castro’s takeover; ushering in 50 years of dictatorship. Despite this, major democratic gains have been consolidated throughout most of Latin America, including Columbia.
Humanitarian: The United Nations is simply overwhelmed with disasters ranging from famines, both natural and self-inflicted as in Zimbabwe, as well as civil wars which haunt the African continent. Sudan’s ongoing Darfur tragedy, the horrors of the Congo, and the lawlessness of Somalia are but a few cases.
American Administration: All eyes are on Washington. Domestic political optimism and global giddiness remains high on the verge of the Age of Obama. While many media pundits assume the new president can walk on water; possible for Canadian politicians in winter but decidedly more difficult on the Potomac in Washington, a brewing crisis of expectations will bedevil Barack Obama. Internecine battles inside his own Democrat dominated Congress will hamper him as much as gathering political gales internationally.
In the midst of all this, Happy New Year 2009!