Rand said the Saudis could have undergone a change of heart regarding
the government of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki. The report titled
"Withdrawing from Iraq: Alternative Schedules, Associated Risks, and
Mitigating Strategies," said the Saudis might have been impressed by
Baghdad's resistance to Iranian intervention and influence.
"The Saudi policy calculus in regard to Iraq is informed by the idea of
Iraq as a contested arena in a larger regional struggle with Iran," the
report said. "Recent events, however, may have convinced the Saudis that
Iranian influence is not as broad-ranging as previously assumed and that it
is worth attempting to bring the Al Maliki government 'back to the Arab
fold.'"
Rand said the new Saudi policy could have been the result Al Maliki's
offensive against the Iranian-backed Special Groups in mid-2008. The
Iraqi-U.S. security agreement, signed in late 2008, was also cited as a
defeat to Iran.
Still, the report envisioned increasing Saudi anxiety over a resurgent
Iraq to the point where Riyad could consider developing a nuclear deterrent.
Riyad was said to have opposed an Iraqi request for F-16 multi-role fighters
and M1A1 main battle tanks from the United States.
"In the Saudi popular imagination, Iraq has long been viewed as the
Prussia of the Arab East -- militaristic, authoritarian state with the
tendency to threaten its neighbors by virtue of its traditionally strong
military, capable technocracy, and industrial base," the report said. "Thus,
the Saudi leadership will be watching the rebuilding of the ISF carefully,
both for evidence of sectarianism and Iranian influence and in terms of its
future power-projection capability."
