"Israelis are most worried about the prospect of an enhanced Iranian
regional presence," the report, titled "Withdrawing from Iraq: Alternative
Schedules, Associated Risks, and Mitigating Strategies," said.
"They are
also concerned that U.S. withdrawal from Iraq could allow for the spread of
terrorism that in turn could threaten the stability of Jordan, both because
of the potential for jihadi violence there and because of the strain posed
by Jordan's Iraqi refugee population, which numbers in the hundreds of
thousands."
Israel has never expressed a position on a U.S. military withdrawal from
Iraq. But some Israeli strategists said the withdrawal could result in a
decline
in U.S. influence throughout the Middle East.
Rand, in a report for the Pentagon leadership, said a U.S. withdrawal
from Iraq could facilitate Iran's use of proxies to attack the Jewish state.
The report said Iran could employ Hizbullah to conduct a nuclear attack
without
directly involving the Teheran regime.
"Israeli strategic analysts worry that if Iran were to acquire a nuclear
weapon capability, such a capability could lead to even more dangerous
behavior by Iranian proxy actors, such as Hizbullah, while constraining
Israel's freedom of action to operate against such groups," the report said.
But other Israeli strategists have assessed that a U.S. military
withdrawal from Iraq would grant Washington greater freedom of action toward
Iran. The report said a U.S. withdrawal from a stable Iraq would enhance
Washington's credibility in any negotiations with the Teheran regime.
"So, Israel has an important interest in the potential outcomes of U.S.
withdrawal from Iraq, although it does not have much ability to directly
affect developments in the country," the report said.
