"Israel would offer precisely what the West needs as it looks at the
'clash of civilizations' that is the Arab-Islamic world: the best and most
well-equipped army; a sophisticated economy, especially in the armament
sector; and by far the highest level of political development," the report
said.
But Joffe said the EU would oppose Israel's membership on grounds that
this would force Brussels to allow entry to Turkey and the Palestinian
Authority. EU members with close ties to North Africa would also object to
Israeli membership in fear of an Arab backlash.
The report said that neither Israel nor NATO would benefit from a
partnership. The Western alliance was expected to refuse to help Israel in
any future war in the Middle East.
"Israel has fought more wars than any Western country in the postwar
period Ñ six, seven, or eight, depending on how you are counting," the
report said. "Therefore, the entrapment risk in unwanted conflicts is
statistically very high."
For the same reason, the report said, Israel, despite occasional
declarations from its leadership, would not want formal membership in NATO.
Joffe, editor of Germany's Die Zeit and senior fellow at the Freeman-Spogli
Institute for International Studies, did not envision Israel willing to
absorb a massive enemy first strike to ensure NATO intervention.
"To minimize the entrapment risk, NATO would only extend membership if
it came with the highest degree of control over Israel's strategic choices,"
the report said. "If your survival is always at stake, you do not want to
entrust your fate to a cast of 30, each one with a veto power. Nor to a
number of states that are more sympathetic to the Arabs than to yourself."
The report said Israel would also oppose a NATO peace-keeping force in
the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Joffe said such a Western force would serve as
a cover for Palestinian and Hizbullah attacks against Israel.
"For the time being, Israel's strategic interests are best served by the
implicit alliance with the United States, which offers the best of all
possible worlds," the report said. "The United States is the security lender
of the last resort, but the 'interest' Israel has to pay for that credit
line, as measured in strategic options foregone, is tolerable."
