[On Oct. 15, the U.S. military reported the death of the No. 2 figure in
the Al Qaida network in Iraq. The military identified the deputy commander
as Abu Qaswarah, also known as Abu Sara, a Moroccan native killed in Mosul
on Oct. 5.]
Over the last year, violence in Iraq has dropped by 80 percent, the U.S.
military said. The Islamic fast month of Ramadan was the least violent since
2004.
"Ladies and gentlemen, nothing is certain in this life," Secretary of
State Condoleezza Rice said. "And success in Iraq is not a sure thing."
But the intelligence community has identified several threats to Iraqi
security in 2009. The sources cited the dismantling of the Sunni-dominated
auxiliary force, Awakening Council, the resurgence of Al Qaida, increased
intervention by Iran and Syria as well as the fight between Kurds and ethnic
Turks for control over the oil-rich Kirkuk region.
"Without a dominant U.S. presence, any of these threats could spark a
war throughout Iraq," an official said.
So far, the findings of the NIE draft have circulated throughout the
Defense Department and State Department. Officials said leading members of
Congress were also briefed on elements of the report.
"It is not clear whether the NIE will be released and certainly whether
this will happen before the [Nov. 4] elections," the official said.
Officials said the NIE warnings over Iraq have been echoed both within
the administration and the U.S. military. They said U.S. Central Command
chief Gen. David Petraeus has urged President George Bush to maintain the
deployment of at least 140,000 U.S. soldiers in Iraq through much of 2009.
"What we have now have to do is sustain that security," U.S. military
commander in Iraq, Gen. Ray Odierno, said. "We have to continue to help
build Iraqi security force capacity. And now the problems become more
complex. They've become a bit more political. And what we want to do is help
Iraq to exercise its full sovereignty."
A key concern of Petraeus has been the dismantling of the 100,000-member
Awakening Council. Officials said only 20 percent of the Sunni officers
would be absorbed by Iraq's military and security forces and at least 30,000
Sunni fighters, many of them wanted for attacks on Shi'ites, have fled to
neighboring Syria.
"These are trained men who could be pressured into joining an Al Qaida
revolt in Iraq," the intelligence source said. "It's a nightmare scenario,
but quite real."
