But Austin acknowledged that violence could quickly spread amid
destabilization in Iraq. He said the biggest threats were the failure of
Iraq to hold provincial elections and a renewal of Sunni-Shi'ite clashes.
Officials have reported a resurgence of Al Qaida, particularly around
Baghdad and Mosul. On Sept. 15, during the visit by U.S. Defense Secretary
Robert Gates, at least 34 people were killed in car bombings in what marked
the latest in a spate of attacks attributed to Al Qaida.
"Al Qaida is in disarray, but they have not yet been defeated," Austin
said.
Austin said the U.S. military did not rule out a rapid security decline.
He said the military has drafted contingency plans, including the deployment
of additional forces.
"And certainly as we redeploy forces out of theatre on the things that
would always be foremost on our minds, if something happens how we can get
something back to help us out," Austin said.
Officials said the U.S. military was concerned over the dismantling of
the Sunni-dominated Awakening Councils, established in 2007 to fight Al
Qaida. They said Awakening commanders and officers were under increasing
threat of Al Qaida and Iranian-sponsored Shi'ite militias, which could
spark ethnic fighting within the Iraqi security forces.
"We are clearly on a mission in transition," Gates said. "There's still
people who would like to see this fail and the important thing will be to
keep the pressure on all of them."
Gates, scheduled to attend the Sept. 16 transfer of command from Gen.
David Petraeus to Lt. Gen. Raymond Odierno, said the new chief would be
challenged by the mission to stabilize Iraq. The United States plans to
withdraw 8,000 of its 146,000 troops in Iraq by January 2009.
"The challenge for Gen. Odierno is how do we work with the Iraqis to
preserve the gains that have already been achieved, and expand upon them
even as the number of U.S. forces are shrinking," Gates said. "So it's a
transition from a focus on the surge brigades and the surge strategy to more
Iraqi units in the lead, and us in more of an overwatch role."
