"At current oil prices, an attack would be unlikely to stop the Iranian
program," the report, titled "Iran's Political, Demographic, and Economic
Vulnerabilities," said. "The government would be able to finance the
reconstruction of the facility and continue the current program without
major budgetary consequences."
The report warned of a spike in crude oil prices and a decline in
investor confidence in Gulf Cooperation Council states. Rand said Iran
could block Iraqi oil exports and GCC shipments in the Gulf.
"An Israeli action would also have a detrimental effect on popular
Iranian opinion of the United States because Iranians would see the attack
as having had the blessing of the United States, although the turnabout in
public opinion might be less precipitous than in the event of a U.S.
attack," the report said. "Bombing Iran's nuclear facilities would have
financial repercussions both for Iran and for the rest of the world."
"The political ramifications within Iran of an attack are less clear,"
the report said. "[Iranian President Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad has come under
fire from other politicians for baiting the United States. An attack might
be perceived as his comeuppance. In our view, a more likely response would
be a strong push to retaliate against the United States [or Israel]. Critics
of such a policy would likely choose to keep silent."
The U.S. intelligence community appeared to dispute some of the
assumptions of the Rand report. CIA director Michael Hayden said Teheran
might not be successful in using even its Lebanese-sponsored militia,
Hizbullah, to retaliate against any U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear
facilities.
"Is it in Hizbullah's interest to become involved in a global war
against the United States of America?" Hayden asked in an interview with the
Bloomberg financial news service. "That's a question to be answered."
For its part, Rand proposed a reconciliation with Teheran and warned
the United States not to inflame ethnic tensions in Iran. Authors
Keith Crane, Rollie Lal, Jeffrey Martini also called on Washington to halt
threats to overthrow the Islamic regime or impose additional sanctions.
"At least in the near term, the Iranian regime is likely to be
relatively stable and resistant to external pressures for dramatic change,"
the report said. "But societal conditions for a more-constructive
relationship with the United States exist: In contrast with the Arab Middle
East, the United States is popular in Iran. Long-term trends suggest that
Iran is likely to become more democratic and less obdurate."
