Israel plans for expected retaliatory strikes by Hizbullah
Thursday, February 21, 2008 Free Headline Alerts
TEL AVIV — Israel's military has been reviewing Hizbullah strike options in wake of the assassination of its operational chief.
"Israel is prepared and will not ignore the possibility that Hizbullah might act," an Israeli Cabinet statement said on Feb. 17.
On Feb. 12, Mughniyeh was killed by a car bomb after meeting in Damascus with Syrian intelligence chief Assaf Chawkat. Palestinians as well as non-Arab nationals have been arrested by Syrian authorities. The most likely scenarios, military sources said, would involve a major Hizbullah strike against Israeli or Jewish interests abroad. They said the attack would be similar to the bombings of the Israel embassy and Jewish community center in Buenos Aires in the early 1990s.
"It's safe to assume Hizbullah will try to retaliate for the assassination of Imad Mughniyeh, possibly with Iranian and Syrian assistance," Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said.
[On Thursday, the London-based daily Al Hayat reported that Barak told Turkish leaders last week that Israel would launch a massive military invasion of the Gaza Strip. The newspaper said Barak asked Ankara to relay a similar message to Syrian President Bashar Assad.]
Other Hizbullah options included rocket strikes from Lebanon as well as an attack by an unmanned aerial vehicle. Hizbullah has fitted Iranian-origin UAVs with a payload of at least 40 kilograms of explosives and sent them into Israel during the war in mid-2006.
"If such an attack could be deniable, there is a possibility that Hizbullah will carry it out and prepare for an Israeli response," a military source said.
The sources said Hizbullah could be encouraged by the increasing reluctance of the Lebanese military and the United Nations peace-keeping forces to intervene in southern Lebanon. They said the UN Interim Force in Lebanon could undergo a significant reduction in 2008 as several European Union states, particularly Spain, were considering withdrawal. The Spanish contingent has come under several attacks from unidentified insurgents in southern Lebanon over the last year.
On Feb. 18, the Israeli military deployed a U.S.-origin PAC-2 missile defense battery outside Haifa to prevent a Hizbullah rocket strike. The PAC-2 deployment was the first since the 2006 war, in which Hizbullah fired more than 4,500 rockets into Israel.
The sources said Iran has already appointed a successor to Mughniyeh. They said the successor could be either Mughniyeh's deputy, Talal Mahiyah, or senior commander Fuad Sukur or chief of Hizbullah forces in southern Lebanon, Ibrahim Akel.
"The IDF and defense establishment are prepared on all fronts," Barak said. "We have no interest in escalation, but we will conduct ongoing situation assessments, including threats abroad, in order to be prepared."