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Tuesday, June 3, 2008

Palestinian leadership void; Abbas wants out

TEL AVIV — The Israeli intelligence community expects Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas to resign in 2009.

Israeli sources said the intelligence community has determined that Abbas would not run for another term as PA chairman. They said Abbas has already assured his Fatah movement that he would step down in January 2009.

"The problem is that there is no clear successor to Abbas," an Israeli intelligence source said.

The intelligence community said Abbas has been losing authority over both Fatah and the West Bank. The sources said Abbas, who suffers from heart and other ailments, has ceded much of his power to Prime Minister Salam Fayyad.

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"Fatah has made it clear that it will never accept Fayyad," the source said. "His only role is to bring money to the movement, particularly the leadership."

Abbas has come under increasing pressure by the young guard in Fatah to resign, the sources said. They said the PA chairman has opposed Fatah or PLO elections out of concern that he and his supporters would be defeated.

The sources said the United States wants Fayyad to succeed Abbas, either as PA chairman or together with Fatah leaders. But the Israeli intelligence community has assessed that Fatah would resist any attempt by Fayyad to assume power.

On Monday, Abbas met Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to discuss a Palestinian state. Abbas has complained that Israel has not conceded on such issues as borders, the future of Jerusalem and the Palestinian demand to return to homes in what is now Israel.

The sources said Abbas has threatened to quit several times amid U.S. pressure to accelerate negotiations with Israel. Over the last year, Abbas was said to have lost most of his leading aides, including security chiefs Jibril Rajoub and Tawfiq Tirawi.

"There's almost no Palestinian leadership," Palestinian Legislative Council member Kadoura Fares said.


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