Fear of Russia may actually be less
acute in Seoul than in Pyongyang,
where Moscow has been alternately
a benefactor and a bully. Since
opening diplomatic relations with
Moscow after the collapse of Soviet
rule in 1991, South Korea has
extended billions of dollars in loans,
set up factories in Russia and is a
major importer of its oil and gas.
Russia earns very little from
North Korea but sees its potential as
a source of raw materials, a bulwark
against Chinese, Japanese and
American influence in Northeast
Asia and a bridge to the west
through South Korea. North Korea is
so important to Russia that Kim Il-Sung,
and his son Kim Jong-Il,
“always said Russia was more scary”
than the U.S., according to Kim
Dong-Su, a North Korean diplomat
who defected in 1998.
The communist regime in
Pyongyang may look primarily to
China for aid, trade and diplomatic
support, but no one doubts the
Russians aspire to a major role. The
Russians, though, arouse the
deepest suspicions among the elite
surrounding Kim Jong-il. They’re
convinced that Moscow would like
to bring about the overthrow of the
regime and install its own leader.
Kim Il-Sung’s and Kim Jong-Il’s
instincts about Russian aims, to
some extent, reflect their Russian
backgrounds. Kim Il-Sung was
sheltered as an officer in the Soviet
army during the second world war
while his son was born near the
Siberian city of Khabarovsk, spent
much of his childhood there and
studied in Moscow.
Russia cut off aid – and stopped
accepting North Korean currency –
in 1991, but Moscow has lately
promised huge assistance to revamp
the North’s rail system. A renewed
Russian influence would have a
huge impact on the armed forces as
well as the dilapidated economy.
Kim Dong-Su called for “a better
combination of sticks and carrots”
to get Pyongyang to co-operate on
dealings with Seoul and a protocol
for verifying whatever the North has
done to meet six-party agreements
for dropping its nuclear program.
South Korea’s president, Lee
Myung-Bak, wants to do just that.
As the Georgian invasion
suggests, however, Russia may
choose to intervene in Korea by
propping up the North against other
powers, despite Pyongyang’s fears of
getting mauled by the great bear’s
regional ambitions.
