In late July, the Bush administration announced plans to sell up to $20
billion in weapons to Riyad. The administration did not specify the combat
platforms in a deal opposed by many in Congress.
"Apart from sending symbolic representatives in past wars, the Saudis
have never actually acted against Israel," the report, entitled "The Saudi
Arms Deal," said. "And in array of serious threats to Saudi basic interests,
Israel hardly figures at all.
"Moreover, the Saudi interest in preserving good relations with the West
and ensuring the flow of oil actually requires tranquility on the Israeli
front," the report said. "Even a different regime, no matter how radical it
might be, would find it difficult to ignore these realities."
Authored by Yiftah Shapir, a leading Israeli analyst, the report said
the latest U.S. arms proposal was discussed for several years with Riyad.
The report said the administration has sought to use the huge arms package
to ensure Saudi
support for the U.S. military presence in Iraq.
Shapir said Washington has also sought to counter Russian influence in
the Middle East, which could include the return of the Russian Navy to the
eastern Mediterranean. The administration was also said to have used the
proposed sale to help the U.S. defense industry.
"The U.S. administration is providing open support for American defense
industries in the face of fierce competition by other large suppliers," the
report said. "In the Gulf region, this primarily means competition with
British, French and, to a lesser extent, Russian manufacturers. In the
particular case of Saudi Arabia, it may even involve a hope of getting the
Typhoon deal canceled."
Israel, which would receive a 25 percent increase in U.S. military aid,
has sought to reduce the scope of the U.S. arms package to Saudi Arabia. The
report said a key concern was the U.S. export of the Joint Direct Attack
Munition, a kit that converts general purpose bombs into precision
munitions.
"Israeli objections to previous Saudi arms deals have also been raised
and rejected -- because of America's special interest in its relationship
with Saudi Arabia," the report said. "Again on this occasion, in the face of
administration determination, excessively virulent Israel opposition would
only have produced anger in Washington. So on this occasion, Israel chose
instead to temper its response. In return, it will now receive an upgraded
security assistance package of its own."