WASHINGTON — In an assertion disputed by the Bush administration, the National
Intelligence Estimate has issued a report that concluded that the violence in
Iraq amounts to a civil war. The NIE, a document that represents the views of
all 16 U.S. intelligence agencies, warned of continued deterioration in Iraq
in 2007.
"The Intelligence Community judges that the term 'civil war' does not
adequately capture the complexity of the conflict in Iraq," NIE, released on
Feb. 2, said. "Nonetheless, the term 'civil war' accurately describes key
elements of the Iraqi conflict, including the hardening of ethno-sectarian
identities, a sea change in the character of the violence, ethno-sectarian
mobilization, and population displacements."
[On Saturday, a suicide truck bomber killed at least 135 people in an
attack on a market in a Shi'ite area of Baghdad, Middle East Newsline reported. The truck was said to have
contained a ton of explosives.]
The intelligence community also warned of the collapse of Iraq. NIE said
the rapid decline in security seen in late 2006 could continue unless quick
action was taken.
"Iraqi society's growing polarization, the persistent weakness of the
security forces and the state in general, and all sides' ready recourse to
violence are collectively driving an increase in communal and insurgent
violence and political extremism," NIE said. "Unless efforts to reverse
these conditions show measurable progress during the term of this Estimate,
the coming 12 to
18 months, we assess that the overall security situation will continue to
deteriorate at rates comparable to the latter part of 2006."
The report cast doubts on the prospect of a significant improvement in
Iraqi military and police. NIE cited sectarian divisions as well as Iraqi
military and police equipment and personnel shortages, which the report said
have eroded the dependability of many units.
"Despite real improvements, the Iraqi security forces -- particularly
the Iraqi police -- will be hard pressed in the next 12-18 months to execute
significantly increased security responsibilities, and particularly to
operate independently against Shia militias with success," the report said.
"Sectarian divisions erode the dependability of many units, many are
hampered by personnel and equipment shortfalls, and a number of Iraqi units
have refused to serve outside of the areas where they were recruited."
The report portrayed a Shi'ite community deeply suspicious of Sunni
intentions, including U.S. efforts at reconciliation. At the same time, the
Sunnis were said to remain unwilling to accept their minority status.
For its part, the autonomous Kurdish community in northern Iraq would
not surrender political gains achieved since the overthrow of the Saddam
Hussein regime in 2003. NIE said the Kurds were increasing their control of
Kirkuk, center of northern Iraq's oil resources.
"Significant population displacement, both within Iraq and the movement
of Iraqis into neighboring countries, indicates the hardening of
ethno-sectarian divisions, diminishes Iraq's professional and
entrepreneurial classes, and strains the capacities of the countries to
which they have relocated," the report said.
Still, NIE said the decline of Iraq would accelerate amid a rapid
withdrawal by the U.S. military. The intelligence community envisioned
intensified Sunni resistance, a collapse of the Iraqi security forces,
Turkish invasion and ethnic cleansing.
"If such a rapid withdrawal were to take place, we judge that the ISF
[Iraqi Security Forces] would be unlikely to survive as a non-sectarian
national institution; neighboring countries -- invited by Iraqi factions or
unilaterally -- might intervene openly in the conflict," the report said.
"Massive civilian casualties and forced population displacement would be
probable."
