Why France’s election matters

In the first round, Nicolas Sarkozy won 31 percent of the vote, Segolene Royal won 26 percent and other contender Francois Bayrou gained 18 percent. The rest of the vote was split among a gaggle of communists, radical leftists, ecologists and far right candidates. Now it gets serious, as both candidates must cobble together a working majority in the May 6th runoff. The respected French daily Le Figaro headlined “Duel at the Top.”

Nicolas Sarkozy the standard bearer of the neo-Gaullist center-right and Seoglene Royal the doyen of the Socialist-lite left both represent a new postwar generation in French politics, and a shattering of the old stereotypes. Sarkozy (52) heir to the Gaullist mantle, is the son of immigrants, a Hungarian father and a Greek mother. He’s entrepreneurial, tough on crime, and pro-American. Segolene Royal, (53) the socialist who cast herself as a left-wing Joan of Arc, becomes the first woman to run for the presidency to reach the second round. Sarko seeks to woo the center. Sego must motivate an unenthusiastic left.

Sarko and Sego have dominated headlines for the past year and have become a long running political road show; both are smooth, packaged and airbrushed candidates a la American. Both represent the traditional Right/Left divide which dominates the political scene. Sarko was a protégé of current President Jacques Chirac. Sego was a protégé of ex-Socialist president François Mitterand. But contrary to the past where ideology played a stronger role, France today despite being increasingly middle class and bourgeois, needs a strong dose of reality and leadership to revive a dispirited country.

Without question France’s economic malaise and domestic tranquility dominate the agenda. While growth rates have improved to 2 percent last year and entrenched unemployment has fallen to 9 percent (double the U.S. rate), the French economy is still not in high gear. Steep taxes, rigid labor laws, the fastest rising public debt in Europe, and the constricting web of a generous welfare state serves as an undertow to job creation and productivity. It’s no secret that many entrepreneurial French have moved to Britain, Ireland and the USA for better work conditions and the chance to keep more of their earnings; 52,000 French were registered to vote in Great Britain alone!

Sarko wants to bring a new dynamic to the commercial scene. Sarkozy proposes “a new dream” for France. Sego wants to add a new entitlements to the welfare state. Still most French nonetheless are wary of “Anglo-Saxon free enterprise.”

Both candidates have played a strong appeal to French nationalism, and indeed both are uncomfortable with the European Union’s political homogenization. Sarko as former Interior Minister is tough on crime, illegal immigrants, and the abuse of French laws. Sego takes a social worker approach where “nanny state” government can solve the problems or slap the wrist. Both confront seething ghettos outside many towns where a climate of despair and lawlessness often mix with a radicalized Islamic identity.

Though foreign policy was not a key element in the elections, France’s international role matters. Relations between France and the United States have been poor since before the Bush presidency. Clearly Jacques Chirac overplayed played the anti-American card in the wake of the Iraq war and has sadly created a serious rift in trans-Atlantic relations. Sarkozy has consistently stressed the importance of France’s ties with Washington and he’s known as being instinctively pro-American. While a Sarko win would not endorse the U.S. role in Iraq, it would signify a marked improvement in the overall political atmosphere between Paris and Washington.

Given France’s powerful position on the UN Security Council and undeniable political clout in much of the developing world, Sarko would usually favor the U.S. concerning many global issues. Sego remains a foreign policy lightweight who would likely be beholden to the old Socialists in her entourage.

Ironically the Socialists want to maintain the status quo while the conservatives want to revitalize the dynamism of France within the Europe Union and the world. Sarko is above all a pragmatist, a realist, and a reformer but not the kind of romantic who would instinctively embrace the USA.

Now the battle Royal for the President of the Republic begins. Les jeux sont fait. The bets are down.