Pushing Pakistan’s Musharaf to the brink as Afghanistan hangs in the balance
UNITED NATIONS — Probably quite deservingly, Pakistan has been pulled into the political blame game for the security situation in neighboring Afghanistan. After all Pakistan’s military has long maintained a “relationship” with all sorts of militant Islamic fundamentalist elements operating in Afghanistan and have historically helped play midwife to the Taliban. Now as NATO nervously anticipates a Taliban military Spring offensive, it’s seemingly logical to blame Pakistan for the resurgence of this fundamentalist Phoenix.
Vice President Dick Cheney recently visited Pakistan to bring a clear and unambiguous message to the Musharaf government; get tough with Taliban. The fundamentalists operate in Pakistan and along the long mountainous frontiers separating both countries. Cheney’s unusually tough talk to Musharaf underlined the Bush Administration’s political frustration with the eroding security situation inside Afghanistan, as well as the political pillaring by Congressional Democrats to put pressure on the Pakistanis.
Clearly the Pakistani security services have long played a double game in the Afghan war—even after the toppling of the fundamentalist Taliban regime in November 2001. Pakistan’s ISI military intelligence agency remains a government within a government and plays all sides through its active measures policies. Add the mix of tribal, Islamic fundamentalist, and warlord-for-hire forces inside Pakistan itself and one finds a witches brew that neither the U.S. nor even the Musharaf government can really master never mind totally control.
Here’s the dilemma. Within the context of alternatives, General Pervez Musharaf remains relatively close to Washington. Since the September 11th 2001 terrorist attacks on the U.S., he has played the American game well and has gained $10 billion in assistance through the relationship. To his credit, Musharaf, has helped Western intelligence agencies round up Al Qaida elements, cracked down on major terrorist plots slated for Europe, and has turned down the political heat with long-time rival India. Given that both Pakistan and India have fought three major wars over the disputed Kashmir territory, and aware that the governments in Islamabad and New Delhi are nuclear weapons powers, this is no small achievement.
On the other hand, writing in the Financial Times, General James Jones (former NATO Supreme Allied Commander) and Mansoor Ijaz admonish, “The government of Pervez Musharaf, Pakistan’s President appears to have quietly sanctioned the re-emergence of the Taliban in stoking Afghanistan’s instability. Evidence of Pakistan’s complicity has been presented to Musharaf by both the U.S and NATO commanders.” The article adds, “The Musharaf government has been unhelpful in addressing the problem of porous borders.” Policing and effectively controlling that long frontier with Afghanistan is no easy task, even with the willpower. Tough terrain and tougher Pushtun tribesman who have family ties on both sides of the arbitrary frontier complicate the dilemma.
NATO’s troops in Afghanistan—the large American military contingent and NATO units from Canada, Britain, the Netherlands, Germany and others are facing off an re-energized Taliban fundamentalist force which is trying to topple the democratically elected government of President Hamid Karzai. I heard the Afghan President six months ago bluntly warning about Pakistan’s double game and how they often turn a blind eye to Taliban. I equally recall President Musharaf telling UN correspondents “Since 1979 (Soviet invasion) Pakistan has borne the brunt of what happened in Afghanistan.” True on both counts.
But here’s where Washington must be very careful. It’s in vogue to blame Pakistan for nearly everything that goes wrong beyond the Khyber Pass—and to be sure some of the ISI intelligence operatives are quite deserving of the blame. Yet should Washington paint Mushraf as the villain in Islamabad, we may sadly discover the day when Islamic fundamentalists run Pakistan with its population of 162 million and, may I repeat, between 40-60 nuclear weapons. Pushing Pakistan may also help reinforce its historically cozy relationship with the People’s Republic of China.
Earlier Pakistan’s ambassador to the United States cautioned that American pressures to do more in the war on terror could actually undermine President Musharaf destabilizing the country as well. Ambassador Mehmud Ali Durrani told the BBC that recent congressional threats to cut off military aid to Pakistan could create major problems. The Ambassador added that it could strengthen anti-American extremist elements in Pakistan and jeopardize warm relations.
I recall that Musharaf told us at the UN that politically he’s “a good tight rope walker.” He will need those skills.
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