Did Kim Jong-il blink or wink?
UNITED NATIONS — In what appears to be a major diplomatic breakthrough in negotiations to disarm nuclear North Korea, the United States and its partners ratified an agreement with Pyongyang which would cease proliferation, and then in turn, give the North Koreans access to energy for their beleaguered economy, a shedding of their political pariah status, and eventual diplomatic ties with Washington.
The deal came after dogged, determined and sometimes seemingly fruitless discussions by American negotiator Amb. Chris Hill and his North Korean counterpart Kim Kye-gwan. The outlines of the pact — stop the clock on nuclear proliferation, close the suspect Yongbyon facility, and then in a proscribed period begin an inspection/nuclear disarmament rollback phase in the reclusive communist country. Given that North Korea tested a nuclear device last October, Washington aimed to stop the program before it became an even greater danger for East Asian instability.
“If” is a big word in the English language. But IF the plan goes according to script, and If the North Koreans are really willing to come clean on their weapons grade programs in development for well over a decade, and If the North Koreas don’t play switch and bait games with inspections, this would represent a major diplomatic victory for the Bush Administration, as did the disarmament pact with Libya a few years ago.
While the Bush Administration has pushed for multilateral diplomacy through the Six Party talks (South and North Korea, Japan, People’s China, Russia and the U.S.) Congressional Democrat critics have long scoffed at this approach.
As this column has stressed, the Six Party talks offer a political united front against Pyongyang’s nuclear proliferation, allow for transparency and spreading the political risk among regional powers, and stress the shared concerns of those regional powers to rid North Korea of nukes. One on one talks between Pyongyang and Washington would have likely bogged down in political recriminations which in turn would be viewed worldwide as American obstinacy, which then could force the U.S. to give more concessions for an accord.
But what are the chief motives of the partners to the accord?
China — While the People’s Republic of China helped broker the deal by their erstwhile comrades in Pyongyang the reasons are manifold. Beijing is decidedly uncomfortable with a nuclear armed and unstable North Korea even if the socialist scion of Kim Il-sung now runs it. Beijing knows that regional instability bodes badly for business and investment in Mainland China; and with Beijing hosting the Summer Olympics in 2008, having a loose cannon on the border is not very harmonious.
The United States — does the Bush Administration in the midst of the Iraq imbroglio, a standoff with Islamic Iran, and a hostile U.S. Congress really need another crisis as potentially dangerous as the divided Korean peninsula? No. Secretary of State Condi Rice wants Non-proliferation NOW and is willing to pay for it.
In 1994, the Clinton Administration signed off on a somewhat similar energy for disarmament deal, which was soon reneged on by North Korea, and which in turn allowed Pyongyang to develop nuclear weapons. The difference now is that this plan is supported by all the regional powers and allows for fewer loopholes.
The plan will send 50,000 tons of fuel in the first sixty days to the dilapidated power production facilities in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. Only as disarmament steps are reached, up to $400 million in energy aid will then be forthcoming. While some fear that sending fuel oil and electric to the DRPK power grid appears as paying blackmail to Kim Jon-il, I would prefer to see this as offering a carrot to Kim to give up the nuclear stick which threatens Japan, South Korea and perhaps, someday the USA. There’s no doubt that the devil is in the details, and this is why I am still not yet fully convinced Pyongyang will actually follow through with its non-proliferation pledges.
South and North Korea — did Kim Jong-il blink? Pyongyang probably factors in a change in Administrations in South Korea next year with a new government in Seoul being decidedly less friendly to Sunshine diplomacy for the North as well as politically less likely to rationalize the threat from the communist North. Kim may have decided this is a good time to deal. Seoul and Pyongyang will resume stalled inter-Korean dialogue.
Japan — probably has the most to fear from a nuclear armed North Korea. Tokyo is very cautious towards the plan and nervously favors a wait and see approach.
Russia — Putin could play a wildcard role here as he has cultivated close personal ties with Kim Jong-il and views the DPRK as a spoiler to American interests in East Asia.
Still, as President Ronald Reagan advised when negotiating arms reductions with the former Soviet Union, “Trust, but Verify.” Here I would hesitatingly use the word “trust” but would clearly put “Verify” to the third power!
So did Kim Jong-il blink and give in, or did he really wink and say, let the games begin?
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