Worldwide Web WorldTribune.com

  Commentary . . .


John Metzler Archive
Friday, December 21, 2007

Kosovo countdown: Crossing the political Rubicon

UNITED NATIONS — The final chapter of the dissolution of former Yugoslavia is unfolding. The Balkan drama which started in the early 1990’s with the bloody breakup of ex-Yugoslavia and the independence of Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Macedonia and Montenegro, still has one more piece on the map. How Kosovo’s chapter will end depends in large part on the reaction of Russia and much more importantly the political resolve and determination of the Europeans and the United States.

In 1999, Serbia’s Slobodan Milosevic unleashed an orgy of ethnic cleansing on the region’s overwhelming ethnic Albanian inhabitants. NATO intervention stopped the Serb attacks, but the UN Security Council then stopped the clock. For the past eight years the region has been administered by the UN Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK), protected by NATO troops, but mired in a political imbroglio over its future.

Also In This Edition

Now more than eight years after the conflict ended and following endless diplomatic discussions and costly institution building by UNMIK, the issue between Kosovo’s Serb minority and Albanian majority comes down to one simple fact—how to square a circle. Earlier this year, UN Special Envoy Martti Ahtisaari, a former Finnish president presented a starkly realistic assessment stating emphatically, “The time has come to resolve Kosovo’s status…I have come to the conclusion that the only viable option for Kosovo is independence.”

Still under the terms of Security Council adopted resolution 1244 (1999), ending the war, Kosovo remains legally part of Serbia though it’s administered de facto by the UN. The status is yet to be resolved and herein lies the opportunities for mischief. The region is steeped in strident nationalism. One can fly to Pristina the capital, and legally land in Yugoslavia but find the city a blizzard of red and double-eagle Albanian flags. Serbs are scattered in enclave villages or farther to the north where ancient Orthodox monasteries such as Gracanica and Banjska must be protected and respected.

Of the region’s two million people, 95 percent are Albanian and mostly secular Muslims. Five percent are Serbs who are Orthodox Christians. But as long as Kosovo lingers in this political limbo, the region will be hampered by a moribund economy, 45 percent unemployment, and simmering resentment which can easily be spill over into violence. Kosovo remains one of Europe’s poorest regions and political tinderboxes.

As last ditch effort at negotiations the troika talks among the European, Union, USA, and Russia ended predictably in failure given the political intransigence of both the Albanian majority wanting full independence and the Serbs favoring status quo. But as America’s UN Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad stressed, that given the irreconcilable differences between the parties, “the current status quo is unsustainable.” He added the U.S. and EU must move forward and embrace the Ahtisaari plan which will lead to Kosovo independence.

The UN Security Council met in a tense closed door session to hear Serbia’s Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica, make an impassioned legal argument against Kosovo’s independence and for Belgrade’s continued rule through “substantive autonomy.” He warned, “Serbia will declare all unilateral acts of Albanian separatists null and void and for Serbia the province of Kosovo will forever remain its integral and inalienable part.”

Europe speaks about “supervised independence” where Kosovo will gain its freedom from Serbia but under the wing of the European Union for much of its administration and funding; this would be secured by the presence of 16,000 NATO/KFOR troops among them Americans, French, Germans and Turks. Russia, supports its ethnic Serbian “little brothers” has played the political spoiler. President Vladimir Putin emboldened by recent election victories has reaffirmed Moscow’s historic support for Serbia. Russia’s hidden hand has yet to be fully played and calls for yet more negotiations.

There are many geopolitical reasons Russia retains interest which go far beyond the Balkans. Restive ethnic regions and enclaves are scattered throughout Russia and many of the newly independent former Soviet states. Georgia, Moldova ,Chechnya all hold dangerous political fault lines which can be manipulated and energized by separatism or sovereignty in Kosovo. Both Moscow and Belgrade have been quietly playing on the fears of many European Union countries with restive ethnic minorities (Spain, Slovakia, Romania, Cyprus) to make the case that what happens in Serbia today could happen to you tomorrow. Thus a number of EU states are nervous to recognize a Kosovo’s formal sovereignty. Mainland China who originally supported Serbia’s case, according to ranking UN officials now accepts the European Union formula for Kosovo.

The Financial Times added editorially, “Moving towards conditional independence will be difficult. Serbs in northern Kosovo will seek partition. Bosnian Serbs might demand independence from their dysfunctional state. Ethnic Albanian minorities in Macedonia remain restless. Russia may not refrain from stirring up trouble. The danger of renewed ethnic violence is clear and present.”

Given the Russian opposition in the Security Council, the UN has reached an impasse. Kosovo’s future will now be turned over to the European Union. Kosovo will gain its freedom in the early months of 2008, with the European Union replacing the UN, and NATO, militarily reinforced, providing the indispensable security on the ground.

The key to Kosovo’s sovereignty and success remains clear and predictable European and American political support for the process, backed up by NATO/KFOR military might. The die is cast—the parties will now cross the political Rubicon.


John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.
About Us     l    Contact Us     l    Geostrategy-Direct.com     l    East-Asia-Intel.com
Copyright © 2007    East West Services, Inc.    All rights reserved.