WASHINGTON — A Turkish military invasion of northern Iraq would not
immediately erode the capabilities of the Kurdish insurgency, according to a new report.
The report said any Turkish military offensive would not significantly
harm the Kurdish Workers Party. The Jamestown Foundation said the PKK would
take advantage of the approach of winter and flee northern Iraq.
"The effects may not be noticeable until the spring of 2008 because the
PKK ingress and egress routes, as usual, will be virtually impassable until
then," the Washington-based foundation said in a report authored by Frank
Hyland.
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Hyland, a former CIA officer and member of the National Security Agency,
said Turkey's military has struggled to contain the PKK, Middle East Newsline reported. He cited increased
Turkish military casualties in PKK hit-and-run strikes.
The report envisioned an improvement in Turkish military operations in
wake of a U.S. pledge to provide intelligence on the PKK to Ankara. Hyland
said the United States could relay images from unmanned aerial vehicles over
the Kandil mountains in northern Iraq, a key PKK stronghold.
"The addition of more detailed intelligence on PKK presence and
movements-and its provision to Turkey in near-real-time-will enhance
Turkey's operations," the report said. "Intelligence-producing assets in the
Iraq theater of operations include unmanned aerial vehicles with the
capability to linger over any target, undetected, for extended periods of
time. A concentration of PKK guerrillas, for example, would then be an easy
target for Turkish aircraft and even artillery fire."
