Turkey has directed U.S. military contractors to oppose the resolution
in the Democratic-controlled House, where it was expected to pass. Ankara
has also recruited Israel and its lobby to work against the resolution.
"The lobbying has been the most intense that I have ever seen it," Rep.
Adam Schiff, the sponsor of the House resolution, said.
Officials said Ankara was not expected to react as harshly as in 2006,
when France's parliament passed a law that criminalized denial of the
Armenian genocide. At the time, Ankara slashed military relations with Paris
and dismissed French bidders from major Turkish defense contracts.
But the administration has been concerned that the House resolution
could spark an anti-American backlash that would demand the expulsion of the
U.S. military presence from Turkey. Under a NATO treaty, the U.S. Air Force
deploys dozens of aircraft at the Incirlik base near Iraq.
"There will be a backlash and no government can be indifferent to that,"
Turkey's ambassador in Washington, Nabi Sensoy, said.
In Ankara, a senior Turkish parliamentarian has warned that Turkey could
cut supplies to the U.S military in Iraq following the passage of the
Armenian genocide
resolution. The parliamentarian, Egemen Bagis, a member of the ruling
Justice and Development Party, cited the U.S. military role in Turkey.
"Don't accept this bill," Bagis said. "If you do, we will be obliged to
do many things we do not want to do. For example, the Americans depend on
Turkey for a large part of their logistical support in Iraq. We would be
obliged to cut this support."
Another prospect was that the passage of the House resolution would
prompt a Turkish decision to attack Kurdish Workers Party bases in northern
Iraq. On Tuesday, Turkey's military and security commanders met to discuss a
proposed invasion of Iraq's Kandil mountains in wake of PKK attacks in which
15 Turkish soldiers and police officers were killed in less than 24 hours.
So far, the Bush administration has been successful in restraining Turkey
from invading Iraq.
Turkey's military has warned Washington that the House resolution would
serve the interests of the growing Islamic lobby in Ankara, which seeks to
reduce relations with the United States. Officials said Turkish Chief of
Staff Gen. Yasar Buyukanit has relayed this message to House members.
On Monday, Turkish Defense Minister Vecdi Gonul sent a similar warning
to his U.S. counterpart, Defense Secretary Robert Gates. In a letter, Gonul
said the government might be unable to control a Turkish backlash to the
Armenian genocide resolution.
Last week, Erdogan telephoned President George Bush and urged him to
block the resolution. Bush has been in contact with Democratic and
Republican leaders to delay the House vote.
"The administration has reached out to the speaker's office and made our
position clear," National Security Council spokesman Gordon Johndroe said.
"We'll see what happens."
