ANKARA — Turkey's Islamist government was expected to win
reelection later this year with needing a coalition partner.
A report by the U.S.-based Merrill Lynch asserted that the ruling
Justice and Development Party, or AKP, would win both the presidential and
parliamentary elections in 2007. The report by the consultancy said the
presidential
election in the spring would proceed smoothly.
"According to our polls, by a 65 percent chance, Justice and Development
Party will rule a second term after general elections," the report, released
on Feb. 12, said according to Middle East Newsline.
The report granted AKP a 90 percent chance to sweep to victory without a
coalition partner. Merrill Lynch said the opposition True Path Party and
Nationalist Movement Party would just make the 10 percent threshold to enter
parliament in elections in November 2007.
"Even if they pass this threshold and enter the parliament, it is likely
to see AKP as one-party government," Merrill Lynch research chief Mehmet
Simsek said.
Simsek said AKP leader and prime minister, Recep Erdogan, would be
elected. In that case, Merrill Lynch expected deputy prime minister and
foreign minister Abdullah Gul to lead his party.
"We predict that AKP votes will remain if Recep Tayyip Erdogan is
elected president or not," Simsek said. "If Erdogan is elected president,
markets expect Gul to become the prime minister. It does not engender a loss
of votes."
The consultant said Turkey would achieve most of its targets in the
realm of budget, tax reform and accession to the European Union. Simsek said
Turkey would not reach its inflation target but experience 7.2 percent
inflation in 2007.
The report does not rule out a political crisis in Turkey. But Simsek
said such a prospect was low.
"Turkey may face a turbulence but can achieve a soft landing if a
serious political crisis does not happen," Simsek said. "If a reformist and
strong country emerges after the elections, Turkey's future is quite
bright."