World Tribune.com

Islamists seen easily winning reelection in Turkey

SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM
Tuesday, February 20, 2007

ANKARA — Turkey's Islamist government was expected to win reelection later this year with needing a coalition partner.

A report by the U.S.-based Merrill Lynch asserted that the ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, would win both the presidential and parliamentary elections in 2007. The report by the consultancy said the presidential election in the spring would proceed smoothly.

"According to our polls, by a 65 percent chance, Justice and Development Party will rule a second term after general elections," the report, released on Feb. 12, said according to Middle East Newsline.

The report granted AKP a 90 percent chance to sweep to victory without a coalition partner. Merrill Lynch said the opposition True Path Party and Nationalist Movement Party would just make the 10 percent threshold to enter parliament in elections in November 2007.

"Even if they pass this threshold and enter the parliament, it is likely to see AKP as one-party government," Merrill Lynch research chief Mehmet Simsek said.

Simsek said AKP leader and prime minister, Recep Erdogan, would be elected. In that case, Merrill Lynch expected deputy prime minister and foreign minister Abdullah Gul to lead his party.

"We predict that AKP votes will remain if Recep Tayyip Erdogan is elected president or not," Simsek said. "If Erdogan is elected president, markets expect Gul to become the prime minister. It does not engender a loss of votes."

The consultant said Turkey would achieve most of its targets in the realm of budget, tax reform and accession to the European Union. Simsek said Turkey would not reach its inflation target but experience 7.2 percent inflation in 2007.

The report does not rule out a political crisis in Turkey. But Simsek said such a prospect was low.

"Turkey may face a turbulence but can achieve a soft landing if a serious political crisis does not happen," Simsek said. "If a reformist and strong country emerges after the elections, Turkey's future is quite bright."


Copyright © 2007 East West Services, Inc.

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