ANKARA — The Turkish intelligence agency has released a threat analysis report that projects the demise of
Iraq by 2010 and several other Middle East states by 2015.
The analysis, in an unusual move for an intelligence agency, was posted
on its website.
"In this period that we are currently in, we will see the process by
which many nations will lose the marathon of history," National Intelligence
Organization Undersecretary Emre Taner said.
Turkish sources said the intelligence assessment
predicted the collapse of several Middle East countries torn by ethnic
and religious tension. The community has urged the government to prepare for
such a scenario.
Taner was reflecting a threat analysis drafted by the organization,
known by its Turkish acronym, MIT. In an address on Jan. 5, Taner warned
that several Middle East states could soon collapse, which would imperil
Turkey as well.
Official said the intelligence assessment envisioned the collapse of
Iraq by 2010. They said this could result in the creation of an independent
Kurdish state along the Turkish border as well as a Shi'ite state in central
and southern Iraq.
A Kurdish state in northern Iraq would foment separatism in Iran, Syria
and Turkey, officials said. They said the new Iranian-backed Shi'ite state
would also endanger several of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries.
"All values, structures, relations, systems and social order, be it
socioeconomic or political, religious or moral, are being reshaped and
redefined," Taner said. "This process is representative of the period in
which new key players, secondary players and the rules of the international
system are being redefined and even reborn."
The Turkish intelligence chief urged Ankara to prepare for a collapse in
the region. Taner said Turkey does not have "the luxury of letting things
flow at its own pace or of simply following laissez-faire tactics with
regards to its policies."
"The primary reason for this [expected collapse] is the deeply
conservative manner in which countries gripped by the status quo approach
analysis of the system," Taner said. "For this reason, any predictions
regarding the future were unsuccessful within the rigid puritanical
approach."