[On Monday, Jordan's state security court sentenced five convicted
Islamic insurgents to prison. The defendants were convicted of recruiting
suicide bombers for Iraq.]
The Islamic threat to Amman has focused on the Islamic Action Front, the
political wing of the Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood. IAF announced a boycott
of the municipal elections amid reports that soldiers were transported to
polling stations to vote against Islamic candidates.
"The IAF's decision to withdraw and allegations of governmental foul
play highlight the confrontational posture of the Islamists vis-a-vis the
Jordanian royal palace," the report said. "Regardless of what becomes of the
IAF's election gambit, recent developments suggest that Jordanian Islamists
have a newfound confidence."
The Islamic opposition draws support from the Palestinian community in
Jordan, which comprises about 60 percent of the population. The report said
IAF has become increasingly close to Hamas, popular in Jordan and winner of
the Palestinian Authority elections in 2006.
The report said Jordan took unprecedented steps to ensure the defeat of
IAF in the municipal elections. The military has been largely comprised of
non-Palestinians, particularly Bedouin tribes loyal to King Abdullah.
"The fact that the Islamists withdrew hours into the election also
suggests that the IAF no longer feels compelled to demonstrate even a
modicum of deference to the king," the report said. "Its new confrontational
politics coincide with the rise of the pro-Hamas wing of the Jordanian
Muslim Brotherhood, symbolized by the 2005 election of Irsheid as
secretary-general. In this context, the boycott seems to demonstrate
burgeoning Islamist confidence — which does not bode well for the kingdom's
relations with Jordanian Islamists."
The report said the rise of Islamic opposition in Jordan has generated
U.S. concern. Schenker cited the impressive gains of the Muslim Brotherhood
in Egyptian parliamentary elections in 2005, the Hamas takeover of the Gaza
Strip in June 2007, and the victory by the pro-Islamic Justice and
Development Party in Turkey in July 2007.
"King Abdullah faces what appears to be the unpalatable risk of either
accepting a more potent Islamist political opposition or having a surface
monopoly on power that encourages even more underground Islamist activity in
the kingdom," the report said.