The British withdrawal was criticized by the United States. The U.S.
military and Defense Department were said to have determined that Iran won a
victory by forcing the British out of the southern port.
"British weakness and failure in the south has both encouraged Shi'ite
extremism and partially opened the door to Iran," said Anthony Cordesman, a
former U.S. senior defense official and a fellow at the Washington-based
Center for Strategic and International Affairs.
Officials said Basra has become a battleground for rival Shi'ite
militias. The southern province contains major Iraqi crude oil reserves and
an increasing Iranian intelligence presence.
"Basra is scheduled to transfer shortly to provisional Iraqi control,
and there are a number of Iraqi units that are lead in that area," said Maj.
Gen. Richard Sherlock, director for operational planning for the U.S. Joint
Chiefs of Staff. "As conditions on the ground dictate, MNC-I and the
multinational force will redistribute those forces as necessary."
Officials expressed concern over the deteriorating security in Basra and
the prospect that the U.S. military would become directly involved after the
British withdrawal. They said the violence in the province reflects a power
struggle between Iranian-financed militias over the oil industry.
"These are sort of almost Mafioso kind of situations where people are
trying to carve up the pie and who controls the money-making businesses and
ventures down there," Defense Department spokesman Geoff Morrell said in an
Aug. 29 briefing. "But it's ugly and it's a problem, and we are concerned
about it. And hopefully the British will continue to work hard on it, and
when and if they leave, undoubtedly we'll have to deal with it as well."
Officials said Basra differed from Sunni provinces, in which the U.S.
military has organized tribes to fight Al Qaida. They said the differences
have prevented the imposition of a uniform solution to quell ethnic militia
and organized crime in Iraq.
"I think every one of the provinces could be rated as having places that
are pretty difficult fights," Lt. Gen. James M. Dubik, commander of
Multinational Security Transition Command Iraq, told military analysts said.
"The country is not a one-size-fits-all, a one-description-fits-all. It's
much more a mosaic."
In a briefing in late August, Dubik said Iraqi security forces have been
performing well and with little coalition support. He cited Nineveh near the
Syrian border, long deemed a route for Al Qaida infiltration. The province
contains a U.S.-led coalition battalion that supports two Iraq Army
divisions.
"So each province really has to be looked at independently," Dubik, who
cited Basra, said. "And each unit, whether it's police or army, I think,
needs a special assessment."
The general said the Iraqi Defense Ministry plans to expand the Iraq
Army and improve maintenance and logistics during 2008. Over the
last 18 months, the army has grown by two divisions, seven brigades and 16
battalions.
"Across the board, one of the weaknesses in the Iraqi army consists in
the logistics and maintenance areas," Dubik said in an Aug. 31 briefing. "My
expectation is sometime in 2008 we'll start seeing Iraqi army units doing
more and more of [their] own maintenance. When you grow an army as fast as
we've grown this one, you can't produce leaders fast enough. You can't grow
majors and lieutenant colonels and colonels in four years. You can grow good
captains and lieutenants in four years. But it takes longer to build the
field-grade officer."
