"The psychological impact of the war between Iraq and Iran and the
invasion of Iraq has created one of the greatest threats to regional
security," Mohammed Noaman Jalal, a leading Gulf strategist, said. "It has
unleashed sectarianism and ethnic conflict in Iraq, which could spill over
to the Gulf."
In his address, Jalal said GCC states were also threatened by the influx
of foreign labor. He said the presence of millions of people from India,
Pakistan and other countries could change Gulf Arab societies.
"Foreign labor in the Gulf have contributed to the development of the
Gulf, but sometimes they have a negative affect on society's fabric because
of not being integrated," Jalal said. "We cannot exclude them. They are a
blessing, but there are some negative aspects."
Jalal, strategic studies adviser to the Bahrain Center for Studies and
Research, said the civil war in Iraq could be manipulated to promote unrest
or insurrection in GCC states. In a lecture on July 16, he said Shi'ites
could use the U.S. military presence in GCC countries as a pretext for
destabilizing Sunni regimes.
"The instability in Iraq and the occupation promotes the concept of
Shi'ites against Sunnis," Jalal said. "This makes other elements fight
against the occupation and people misuse these concepts, while some groups
in other countries in the region will do the same."
Regional analysts said the Shi'ite-led Iraqi government has sought to
intimidate GCC states, including Saudi Arabia. Iraqi parliamentarian Mithal
Al Alusi, a Sunni, recalled an Iraqi delegation who recently arrived in
Riyad for security cooperation talks.
"The Iraqi government does not know how to handle the Saudi mentality,"
Al Alusi told the Saudi-owned A-Sharq Al Awsat daily. "Even the recent
delegation to Riyad, was more of a partisan delegation than a general
political one. It is as if they were trying to tell the Saudis 'We are
the Shia majority, and you must listen to us.'"
