A leading Russian analyst close to the government of President Vladimir
Putin said the Bush administration has been preparing a major air strike
against Iran. The analyst said the Iranian release of 15 British Marines
abducted in early April has hampered but not canceled U.S. attack plans.
"Preparations to strike Iran's strategic facilities continue," Col. Gen.
Leonid Ivashov, president of the Academy for Geopolitical Problems, said.
"Three major groups of U.S. forces are still in the Arabian Sea and the
Persian Gulf. Altogether, they have up to 450 cruise missiles on alert."
[On Tuesday, the London-based A-Sharq Al Awsat daily quoted French
military sources that projected a U.S. strike on Iran in 2007, Middle East Newsline reported. The sources
said Iran could be making a major mistake in underestimating U.S. intentions
and
capabilities.]
The assessment was the latest by government-financed Russian military
analysts that warned of a U.S. war against Iran. Over the last two weeks,
some analysts have raised the prospect of a U.S. air strike over the next
few weeks.
"Combat nuclear weapons may be used for bombing," Ivashov said. "This
will result in radioactive contamination of the Iranian territory, which
could possibly
spread to neighboring countries."
On April 8, Ivashov, who heads a government think tank, told the
Interfax-AVN news
agency that the U.S. Navy would be the lead service in the military campaign
against Iran. He said the attack would begin with a salvo of advanced cruise
missiles.
"Military operations against Teheran will begin with the launch of at
least two unexpected strikes using Tomahawk cruise missiles and air power in
order to disable Iran's air defense capabilities," Ivashov said.
The general said the U.S. military plans to employ up to 150
fighter-jets in the two air strikes on Iran. In the first stage, he said,
the United States would destroy Iran's air defense umbrella, including the
new Russian-origin TOR-M1 mobile surface-to-air missile systems.
Ivashov said the U.S. campaign would target command centers, air defense
batteries, naval vessels and air bases. In the second stage, the general
said, the U.S. military would target Iran's nuclear facilities.
"Nuclear facilities may be secondary targets," Ivashov said. "According
to expert assessments, at least 20 such facilities need to be destroyed in
order to stop Iran's nuclear program."
Ivashov said Iran could respond by firing the Shihab-3E
intermediate-range missile toward Israel. He said this could result in
Israeli nuclear retaliation.
"If Iran strikes back at Israel with missiles, Tel Aviv is likely to use
nuclear weapons on Iran," Ivashov said. "Development of the situation would
undermine stability not only in the Middle East, but also in the entire
world."
