In his eagerness to appear as a peacemaker in the last months of his presidency, Roh may return from Pyongyang with little to show off in return for the enormous infusion of aid and expertise that he'll propose to Kim Jong Il at the summit. "I'm a big fan of North-South dialogue," says Evans Revere, president of the Korea Society, a prestigious forum, based in New York and supported largely by South Korean government and corporate funds. "There is an opportunity for President Roh to engage in serious North-South diplomacy."
Roh at the summit has the chance to request firm guarantees of a reduction of military tensions while holding out the promise of rebuilding the North Korean economy. "I think it will be viewed with concern if he doesn't carry critical messages that relate to six-party talks," says Revere.
The most important message, according to this logic, is that North Korea, having shut down its five-megawatt reactor at Yongbyon as the first step in fulfilling the February agreement, should itemize all its facilities for developing nuclear weapons and, finally, get rid of the dozen or so nuclear warheads that it's believed to have fabricated, all in accordance with the agreement.
The fear, however, is that Roh sees the summit as his last and best chance to shore up his diminished popularity before December's presidential election. "It seems to be a question of legacy," says Donald Gregg, Korea Society chairman and a former U.S. ambassador to South Korea.
Although Roh cannot run again under Korea's constitution, he would like to bring about the election of a candidate who shares his left-of-center views and will perpetuate his efforts at reconciliation with the North. Roh himself has carried out the "Sunshine" policy of his predecessor, Kim Dae Jung, who flew to Pyongyang in June 2000 for the first inter-Korean summit.
Kim Jong Il, for his part, is seen as agreeing to a second summit in part to undermine the conservative Grand National Party. North Korea has frequently criticized possible conservative presidential candidates, notably Lee Myung Bak, former Seoul mayor and front-runner for the nomination.
North Korea's demands reflect more than economic concerns. The North wants South Korea to cut off military ties with the U.S. while attacking upcoming joint U.S.-South Korean military exercises.
It seems unlikely that South Korea will give up a program for modernizing its armed forces while the U.S. is pulling most its forces to a base south of Seoul and reducing the number of its troops in Korea from the current level of 29,000, down from 37,000 at the start of Roh's term. Nonetheless, South Korea seems willing to postpone military exercises - a significant concession that portends more compromises in the future.
No one expects Kim Jong Il to reciprocate with a deal that would call for North Korea to reduce the size of it armed forces of more than one million troops, 400,000 more than the size of South Korea's military, much less to jettison its stockpile of nuclear warheads. Kim, whose power resides in his position as chairman of the National Defense Commission, has been visiting military units, encouraging preparedness for war.
Kim, at the summit, may well mention unhappiness with North Korea's presence on the State Department's list of terrorist countries - a status that keeps foreign financial institutions from wanting to deal with the North. North Korea is pressing that demand - and the need for diplomatic relations with the U.S. - as a quid pro quo for moving ahead on fulfilling the nuclear agreement.
Meanwhile, the scope of the South Korean economic proposal suggests a payoff reminiscent of the $500 million that moved from South Korean coffers to North Korea before the June 2000 summit. For Kim Jong Il, the economic rewards are if anything higher than ever.
