WASHINGTON — U.S. intelligence sources say the killing of Abu Mussib Al Zarqawi has dealt a body blow to Al
Qaida's campaign to export Islamic insurgency throughout the Middle East.
Western intelligence sources and analysts said the killing of the
42-year-old Al Qaida network chief would not end the Sunni insurgency in
Iraq. But they said Al Zarqawi's death would significantly hamper Al Qaida
operations throughout the Middle East.
"Al Zarqawi created a terrorist laboratory in Iraq for the training of
foreign fighters who would then return to their home countries," a U.S.
intelligence source said. "Without Al Zarqawi, this effort could be
damaged."
Zarqawi was regarded as the leading operational commander of the Sunni
insurgency in Iraq, Middle East Newsline reported. Over the last three years, he was responsible for
hundreds of car bombings, suicide attacks and abductions that killed
thousands of Iraqis, Americans and other foreigners.
"There'll always be someone who will pop up, but this fellow was the
mastermind of that network," Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said. "And he
was involved in the financing of it. He was involved in activity outside of
Iraq."
U.S. and Iraqi officials said Zarqawi participated in beheadings and
drafted details of major suicide operations against Iraqi, U.S. and United
Nations targets. They said Al Zarqawi planned the suicide bombings of three
hotels in Amman, Jordan in November 2005.
"Zarqawi didn't have a number two," Rohan Gunaratna, a senior fellow at
Singapore's Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies, said. "I can't think
of
any single person who would succeed Zarqawi."
An author of a book that detailed the Al Qaida network, Gunaratna said
Al Zarqawi's successor would not be able to match the ruthlessness of the
late Al Qaida's leader. Gunaratna said Al Zarqawi was unique in Iraq in his
determination to attack U.S. and allied interests in the Middle East.
Amatzia Baram, a leading analyst on Iraq and consultant to the Bush
administration, agreed. Baram, a professor at Israel's Haifa University,
said, Al Zarqawi's death signals the "beginning of the end of the Al Qaida
organization and Sunni rebellion in Iraq."
"Organizationally, Zarqawi was the most efficient executor of mass
terror attacks, especially against the Shiites, with car bombs and suicide
bombers," Baram said.
Since 2004, Al Zarqawi has exported his network to the Levant, the
intelligence sources said. They said he sent operatives and funds to build
Islamic insurgency cells in Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, the Palestinian
Authority and Saudi Arabia.
Al Zarqawi's network, in a policy that sparked concern among some of his
Iraqi associates, conducted or financed strikes in Egypt and Jordan in 2005
and 2006. The sources said the Al Qaida chief also sent operatives to help
revive the Islamic insurgency in Saudi Arabia.
"It's doubtful Zarqawi's successor would export cells outside of Iraq,
at least not in the beginning," the senior source said. "The question is how
successful would the new guy be in Iraq."
The sources said Al Zarqawi's regional network was aided by Al Qaida No.
2 Ayman Zawahiri. They said Zawahiri, a former Egyptian military officer,
sought to establish an insurgency network that would destabilize the regime
of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.
On Thursday, U.S. military spokesman in Iraq, Maj. Gen. William
Caldwell, said Al Zaraqwi would probably be succeeded by an Egyptian
national. Caldwell identified the presumed successor as Abu Al Masri, who
had been in Iraq since 2002.
Caldwell said the attack on Al Zarqawi's safe house produced information
that led to 17 raids of suspected Al Qaida safe houses in the Baghdad area.
He said the raids yielded a "treasure trove" of information.
Intelligence sources disputed Caldwell's assertion that Al Masri would
succeed Al Zarqawi. They said any successor must rebuild much of the Al
Qaida leadership in Iraq eroded by U.S. operations over the last 18 months.
"Because of Zarqawi's close identification with sectarian violence and
attacks on civilians, some of the energy may go out of these kinds of
actions," Jeffrey White, a former U.S. government intelligence analyst said.
"Surviving AQI [Al Qaida in Iraq] leadership is likely to feel more
vulnerable, and to be looking for support from other elements of the
insurgency, rather than in pursing controversial and divisive tactics."