WASHINGTON — The U.S. defense community has been quietly
disappointed by Israel's war in Lebanon.
Government analysts said the Israel
Air Force has sought to erode Hizbullah capabilities rather than strike a
blow that would shatter the militia's command and control.
"There's no shock and awe here," a senior government analyst, referring
to the U.S. strategy in Iraq, said. "Hizbullah has been hurt but has managed
to continue."
The analysts said Israel has adopted a bombing campaign that resembled
the U.S.-led NATO bombardment of Serbia in 1999. For 78 days, NATO warplanes
struck civilian and military targets in an effort to stop President Slobodan
Milosovic from expelling Muslims from Kosovo. In the end, Milosevic agreed
to a ceasefire after NATO threatened a ground invasion.
"I can't see this as a successful strategy," another analyst said. "In
Yugoslavia, NATO had all the time in the world. Israel can't count on more
than two weeks."
The analysts said Hizbullah's military capability surprised Israel and
the United States. They said that despite the increase of Iranian arms
deliveries to Hizbullah in 2006, Israel did not revise its assessment that
the Shi'ite militia could not sustain more than a week of war.
The biggest surprise to the U.S. intelligence community, analysts said,
was the Hizbullah launch of the C-802 cruise missile. On July 14, the
Chinese-origin missile struck and damaged an Israeli missile boat.
"This was more than just a successful strike," a U.S. intelligence
source said. "It was a clear signal by Iran of what it intends to do to us
in the Gulf."
A congressional staffer who monitors militaries in the Middle East said
he was impressed by the ease with which Hizbullah struck Israeli military
bases. The staffer said Hizbullah rocket strikes forced Israel to remove
planes and helicopters from bases as far as 40 kilometers south of the
Lebanese border.
"It was disturbing to see the Israeli retreat," the staffer said. "It
could have significant repercussions in future conflicts."
The analysts said the U.S. military was closely studying the Hizbullah
war to prepare for any future conflict with Iran and its proxies. They said
the results of the Israeli military campaign could influence the extent of
advanced technology procurement for both the U.S. military as well as
homeland security.
"The longer-term consequences will impact everything from the U.S.
immigration debate — current proposals are dependent on high-tech sensors
to stop illegal immigration — to the implementation of transformation
programs around the world and especially the USA's Future Combat Systems and
its plethora of UAVs and unmanned sensors," the Washington-based Defense
Industry Daily said.
