WASHINGTON — Congress has disputed the Defense Department's
assessment of increasing stability in Iraq.
Congressional researchers have determined that Iraq was far less stable
than that reported by the Pentagon The researchers also concluded that the
security situation would continue to deteriorate over the next few months.
The Government Accountability Office has issued a report that determined
that eight of Iraq's 18 provinces were dangerously unstable. The GAO
reported a 23 percent increase in insurgency strikes between 2004 and 2005.
"Of Iraq's 18 provinces," the report said, "one province — Al Anbar —
had a security situation marked by a high level of insurgent activity,
assassinations, and extremism; six provinces, including Baghdad and Basra,
had routine insurgent activity, assassinations, or extremism; eight
provinces had the security situation under control but conditions existed
that could quickly lead to instability; and three provinces in the north had
a semi-permissive security environment where local security forces
maintained the rule of law."
The findings contrasted with those of the Pentagon, which said Iraq's
military has assumed responsibility for 18 percent of the country, including
65 percent of Baghdad. The Pentagon has asserted that four Iraqi provinces
remained unstable.
The GAO report, released on April 25 during a hearing by the House
Subcommittee on National Security, Emerging Threats and International
Relations, quoted a U.S. embassy and military assessment that deemed three
Iraqi provinces as stable. All three provinces were in the autonomous
Kurdistan region in northern Iraq.
The most violent of the Iraqi provinces were those dominated by Sunnis.
Entitled "Governance, Security Reconstruction and Financing Challenges," the
GAO report termed the Anbar province, which extends west of Baghdad to the
Syrian border, as "critical" with a dysfunctional government and teeming
insurgency activity.
Over the last year, the Iraqi military and security forces have grown
from 142,000 to about 250,000. But the report said the increase in trained
and equipped soldiers and police did not mean Baghdad was ready to assume
major security responsibilities.
"The number of trained and equipped forces does not provide reliable
information on their status," the report said. "Several problems have
hampered the Ministry of Defense's ability to sustain Iraqi forces
independently, including weaknesses in payroll, material readiness,
contracting, and construction. Furthermore, although a concept of logistical
support exists, the Iraqi army will continue to rely on a U.S. supply chain
because Iraq does not have a defense industrial base."
GAO deemed as "serious" the provinces of Baghdad, Basra, Diyala,
Ninevah, Salah Eddin and Tamim. The report said insurgency activity as well
as violence in those provinces remained high.
The Shi'ite-dominated provinces were regarded as more stable. The report
said the government in eight Shi'ite provinces in central and southern Iraq
were functioning, although security remained precarious.
"The United States and Iraq must address four key challenges if they are
to successfully stabilize and rebuild Iraq," the report said. "First, Iraq
needs to form a permanent government. Second, Iraq and the United States
must neutralize the insurgency and address sectarian violence. Third, the
Iraqi government and the United States must restore and maintain basic
services. Fourth, Iraq must secure funding to continue reconstruction
efforts begun by the United States."
On Thursday, the U.S. military asserted that Iraq was retreating from
the prospect of civil war. The military acknowledged a 90 percent increase
of attacks on civilians over the last two months, but said sectarian
bloodshed in Baghdad dropped by more than 50 percent over the past week.
"We are not seeing widespread militia operations across Iraq," U.S.-led
spokesman Maj. Gen. Rick Lynch told a briefing. "We are not seeing
widespread movement of displaced personnel. So we do not see us moving
toward a civil war in Iraq. In fact we see us moving away from it."
