WASHINGTON — The Bush administration, in what appeared to be a
rebuff to the U.S. intelligence community, said Iran is
approaching the point of no return in terms of its indigenous nuclear capability.
Officials said the State Department has determined that Iran has reached
or was close to completing the nuclear fuel cycle. They said this meant that
Iran could complete the process that begins with the extraction of uranium
from ore, production of feeder gas and the enrichment of uranium to the
level required for reactor fuel.
"We are very close to that point of no return," Undersecretary of State
Robert Joseph said. "And I think that's a view that was shared — that is
shared by many others."
Officials confirmed that Iran has succeeded in enriching uranium to a
level of 3.5 percent through a cascade of 164 gas centrifuges. Iran has
announced plans to assemble a 3,000-centrifuge cascade by early 2007, Middle East Newsline reported.
Joseph, responsible for arms control and international security at the
State Department, told an April 21 briefing that the West would soon no
longer have the ability to stop Iran's nuclear program. He endorsed Iran's
claim of producing 110 tons of uranium hexafluoride, or UF-6, the feeder gas
for enrichment in centrifuges.
"It's fair to say, I believe, that the Iranians have put both feet on
the accelerator," Joseph said. "They're moving very quickly to establish new
realities on the ground associated with their nuclear program."
Officials said Iran has been advancing rapidly toward its goal of
industrial production of
enriched uranium. They said this would eventually include weapons grade
material.
"Iran has acquired the confidence and the capability of running
centrifuges over a sustained period of time, allowing it to produce enriched
uranium," Joseph said.
"Perhaps most disturbing, at least in my calculation, is the
announcement that they are operating a centrifuge cascade consisting of 164
centrifuges," Joseph said. "Every nuclear physicist that I have talked to in
the past has always suggested that 164 is a key number, because once you're
able to operate, over a sustained period of time, 164 centrifuges in cascade
and feed into that this material, this UF-6 that I talked about, you're well
on your way to an industrial scale capability in terms of the production of
enriched uranium."
Officials said Iran could produce enough fissile material to produces at
least one nuclear warhead per year through a 3,000-centrifuge cascade. They
cited a claim by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was developing the
advanced P-2 centrifuge, said to be four times faster than the P-1.
"Now we have this extraordinary situation where for a couple of years
the Iranians told the IAEA we're not engaged in P-2 centrifuge research and
then the president of Iran last week said we are engaged in P-2 centrifuge
research," Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns told the briefing.
The assessment by the administration of Iran's nuclear achievements
contrasted with that of the U.S. intelligence community. On April 20,
National Intelligence Director John Negroponte played down Iran's claim of
uranium enrichment, saying Teheran would require several more years to
produce a nuclear weapon.
Officials said Negroponte's statement reflected a dispute over the
meaning of the "point of no return." They said some government analysts
define this as the production of sufficient fissile material for a nuclear
weapon, while others assert that Teheran must actually assemble a nuclear
warhead.
"There is an earlier point of no return, and that is when Iran has
acquired the confidence and the capability of running centrifuges over a
sustained period of time, allowing it to produce enrichment uranium," Joseph
said. "And again, the key point there has always in the past been the
164-cascade centrifuge."
