LONDON — The U.S. Central Command is preparing contingency plans for the prospect of
an American-led war against Iran.
Officials stressed that Centcom has not received orders to strike Iran's
nuclear facilities. But they said the command is conducting exhaustive research as part of a process which Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld called 'not unusual' and discussed at length yesterday at the Pentagon.
Officials said Centcom's war planning was based on a thorough study
of Iranian capabilities, threats, intentions and Teheran's presumed
assessments of U.S. military power. They said U.S. military planners would
base contingency drafts on the need to surprise Iran in any confrontation.
"Clearly this country, for the better part of 15 years, has had various
contingency plans," Rumsfeld, who would not discuss
planning on Iran, said. "That's what this department does is plan for
various contingencies. And it's not unusual, and one would be critical of
the department were they not to have done so."
"I remain persuaded that we would be able to do anything that our nation
asks us to do," Brig. Gen. Mark Kimmitt, director of strategic policy and
planning at Centcom, said. "And any nation that somehow miscalculates in
that regard is making a tremendous mistake."
Kimmitt told Arab journalists in a briefing in London that the United
States remains committed to resolving the crisis with Iran through
diplomacy. But he said Centcom was studying a range of scenarios, including
the prospect of an Iranian-sponsored Islamic insurgency campaign in wake of
a U.S. military confrontation with Teheran.
"This entire issue of Iran has to be focused not simply on the specific
issues within Iran," Kimmitt said on April 10. "But any time we review a
situation whether it is diplomatic, economic or military, we always take
into account the fact that the problem cannot be seen in isolation. But it
does have
ripple effects throughout the area."
In a Pentagon briefing on Tuesday, Rumsfeld and Gen. Peter Pace,
chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff outlined the war planning process.
They said a U.S. regional military command, such as Centcom, routinely
reviews threat scenarios and submits recommendations to the Pentagon.
"Then they take one of them in sequence, and they'll say, 'Here are the
assumptions that we're going to operate on. How do you feel about that?'"
Rumsfeld said. "Then Pete [Pace] and I and others and the chiefs will talk
about the assumptions and we'll get that right. Then they'll go back out and
they'll start to develop a plan based on those assumptions for that
particular niche. Then we work through that — that may take six months —
back and forth, back and forth. Then they'll take another piece of their
responsibility and do the same thing."
Pace traced the numerous discussions that preceded the U.S.-led war in
Iraq in 2003. He said that in late 2001 Rumsfeld — "once it became apparent
that we may have to take military action" — asked then-Central Command
chief Gen. Tommy Franks to draft war plans against Iraq.
"Over the next two years, 50 or 60 times, Tom Franks either came to
Washington or by video teleconference, sat down with the secretary of
defense, sat down with the Joint Chiefs and went over what he was thinking,
how he was planning," Pace said "...What happened was, in a very open
roundtable discussion, questions about what might go right, what might go
wrong, what would you need, how would you handle it, and that happened with
the Joint Chiefs and it happened with the secretary."
Pace said that Franks met the Joint Chiefs before President George Bush
relayed the final order for war against Iraq. The chairman said the Joint
Chiefs determined that Centcom's plan was solid and its resource
requirements would be fulfilled.
"We had then and have now every opportunity to speak our minds, and if
we do not, shame on us because the opportunity is there," Pace said. "It is
elicited from us. You know, we're expected to. And the plan that was
executed was developed by military officers, presented by military officers,
questioned by civilians as they should, revamped by military officers, and
blessed by the senior military leadership."
Officials said Central Command was preparing to restructure and
significantly reduce the U.S. military presence as part of the war against
Al Qaida in the region. They said more than 200,000 American soldiers —
supported by 50,000 allied troops — serve in Centcom's area of command,
which extends from Egypt in the west to Kirgyzstan in the east. Since
January, about 27,000 U.S. soldiers have left Iraq.
"After Iraq and Afghanistan are stabilized Washington will maintain
sufficient forces in the region to respond, to deter, and to prevent,"
Kimmitt said. "But it will be a fraction of what we have today because the
U.S. does not to give the impression that we are there permanently and give
weight to the Al Qaida arguments that say that the only reason the Americans
are there is to permanently occupy."
Kimmitt said Al Qaida has formed a small presence in Iran and could seek
to establish training bases in the country. He called on Teheran to arrest
these operatives.
"It is not only in failed states that Al Qaida can find safe havens,"
Kimmitt said. "It is also in advanced nations as well."
Kimmitt said the United States has sought talks with Iran regarding the
future of Iraq. He said the talks — suspended until the formation of a
government in Baghdad — would be restricted to security
issues, particularly Iranian intervention in Iraq.
"The specific brief of the talks is to discuss with Iran some of the
security concerns the two countries have with regards to Iraq," Kimmitt
said. "We are talking about narrow focus talks with Iran which is a
geographical neighbour and there are some concerns about its behavior in
Iraq."
During the briefing, Kimmitt maintained that the prospect of a civil war
in Iraq remained "very low." He said the Iraqi military, unlike that in
Lebanon or Yugoslavia, has remained stable despite rising sectarian tension.
"Where there has been sectarian violence you have not seen the Iraqi
security forces break down and the military break down and say 'I am going
to my people Ramadi or Faluja or Basra, Suleimeniya," Kimmitt said. "At this
point I still believe the chances for full-scale civil war to be
low, but I also believe that we must stay vigilant every day to ensure that
doesn't happen."